India on DohaPosted by Nanne Zwagerman in International Economics on Thursday, August 7. 2008
The new Atlantic Media Network blog has a very useful press roundup on the Doha round collapse, focused on the question who 'did it in'. They quote papers from both sides of the Atlantic on the matter.
The coverage alternates between blaming India and China (India foremost) and choosing the safe, neutral storyline by claiming that they are 'asserting' their newfound power. One perspective that certainly needs to be added is that of India itself. Here are three stories from the Times of India: 'Do As the Americans Did' is a leader by Arun Maira that focuses on India's need to build up its economy and the associated need for protection. The United States focus as a case study in this matter, as its strongest period of growth (1890-1910) happened at a time when it was protectionist, and Europe was more liberal. Maira claims that 'healthy' free trade must be the end point of an evolutionary process. 'Save Doha' is the paper's editorial. It comes down to the point that India's and China's demands for the threshold for a safeguard mechanism were too protectionist, but that the EU and US could have found a middle point for a compromise. "The world", the paper concludes "can't wait till Indian agriculture is ready to face global competition, of course. But neither can the world ignore India and China's concerns." 'Playing to the Gallery' is another leader, by Narendar Pani. He compares the single-issue focus of the current commerce minister with that of the former, Murasoli Maran, who categorically opposed labour standards at the WTO ministerial in Seattle, 1999. According to Pani, this has led to the BBC arbiting over labour standards instead of the WTO, as western firms are mindful of public pressure. The obstruction back then has turned out to have mainly symbolic consequences and Pani expects similar results from India's current obstruction. Is the Doha Round No Longer Relevant?Posted by Nanne Zwagerman in International Economics on Monday, July 28. 2008
A short commentary on the Doha Round of WTO negotiations:
The talks being held at this time in Geneva are not making enough progress. The latest compromise text that had been drawn up by Pascal Lamy is opposed by India, and the U.S. is also blaming China for going back on earlier promises, as the Associated Press reports. [Tuesday Update: The talks have now collapsed in what the Telegraph calls a 'blow to globalisation'] One fascinating element of the talks is the emergence of a core group of 7 WTO members who consulted closely on the new deal. Here's an excerpt from the Bridges daily updates: Seven of the world's largest trading powers emerged front and centre in the struggling talks at the WTO on Wednesday, meeting all afternoon and late into the night in an attempt to find a way out of the impasse in governments' push for breakthrough deals on agricultural and industrial goods trade. [...]This provides a useful mirror for the current balance of power in the world in the trade arena. The absence of Canada is notable. Keep in mind that Russia is not (yet) a WTO member. Continue reading "Is the Doha Round No Longer Relevant?" The Impact of the Oil Shock: Trade Networks ShrinkPosted by Editors in International Economics on Monday, July 7. 2008 This is a guest blog post by Donald Stadler, an American living and working in London: Washington Post economics columnist Robert Samuelson recently wrote a piece about the trade impact of the oil shock on the US, quoting economist Jeffrey Rubin of CIBC World Markets, who predicts that oil will go to $225 a barrel/$7 a gallon before this is finished. Apart from the obvious impact on per-liter fuel prices in Europe (I have heard of diesel prices as high as £1.99 a litre in the UK), there are some interesting side effects on world trade. The bottom line is that shipping cheap manufactures thousands of miles make much less sense than it has this past decade. Since 2000 the cost of shipping a 40 foot shipping container from East Asia to the US has gone from $3000 to $8000, and if oil prices go to $200 a barrel this will go to $15,000 per container. Some production will be brought back to the US and Europe, and other production will go from Asia to nearby low-wage countries like Mexico (for the US) and Poland/Bulgaria/Romania, and perhaps Russia and Turkey (for the EU). This may be good news for factory workers in Italy and in depressed areas of Germany and the UK. Continue reading "The Impact of the Oil Shock: Trade Networks Shrink" Making Transatlantic Economic Cooperation More InterestingPosted by Nanne Zwagerman in Transatlantic Relations on Wednesday, June 25. 2008
In reaction to a previous post about the boring, technical nature of transatlantic economic cooperation, Atlantic Review reader John in Michigan made the important point that "the political process requires an engaged citizenry to function well. Any topic or area that an ordinary citizen would rightly find dull, doesn't belong in politics".
Transatlantic economic cooperation is a process that produces winners and losers and thereby has political implications. As it deals with economic relations between the world's two largest economies by far, these implications will likely prove to be significant. The cooperation process, however, is technical to a degree where the political implications are likely to be registered late, and to lead to oblique reactions. At the core, being 'dull but important' is a dilemma, which has to be solved by making transatlantic economic cooperation more interesting. This could for instance be done by clarifying the political implications of very technical issues like eliminating 'non-tariff barriers'. That, however, is a very difficult analysis to make, and will be contested. Another solution is to make the issue more interesting by addressing more strategic and political issues. That is the proposal of Henning Meyer of the Social Europe Blog, in a policy paper written for the Global Policy Institute. Continue reading "Making Transatlantic Economic Cooperation More Interesting" Transatlantic Economic Cooperation - Dull but ImportantPosted by Nanne Zwagerman in Transatlantic Relations on Thursday, June 5. 2008
Interest in transatlantic economic cooperation is hard to sell to the public. That is the conclusion of Philip Whyte at the Centre for European Reform:
If the potential economic gains from deepening the transatlantic economy are marked, why is the TEC’s [Transatlantic Economic Council - Nanne] agenda not better known? The (largely justified) perception that it is dull does not help. Let’s face it: the mutual recognition of GAAP and IFRS accountancy standards, or, for that matter, the transatlantic dimension of the EU’s chemicals directive, are not the sorts of subject that most normal people are inclined to discuss when they kick back and relax after work.A lot of transatlantic economic cooperation is very detailed work that is hard to render in political terms. The overall direction towards greater liberalisation of trade might be worth talking about. But that political aspect has become murky, hidden behind the details, implicit. That is partially because it has become presumed to be only responsible position by much of the media. Non-tariff barriers as dealt with by the TEC are a catch-all phrase for regulation that sometimes largely serves to harass imports, sometimes just hasn't been coordinated, but in other cases serves political goals other than rank protectionism. It has become hard to have a sensible debate on the balance of this as well as other trade topics because the only positions that are argued are either an implicit bias in favour of all forms of liberalisation, or the diametrical opposite, which is in favour of protectionism as a goal in itself -- the thereby 'unserious' left. Four Myths About Transatlantic RelationsPosted by Joerg Wolf in Transatlantic Relations on Wednesday, May 16. 2007
William Drozdiak, president of the American Council on Germany and the former chief European correspondent for The Washington Post, wrote an op-ed about transatlantic relations. (Hat tip: Don) Unfortunately, the Washington Post editors chose an headline "4 Myths About America-Bashing in Europe," although only two of the four myths could be put into the category America-Bashing. The headline choice indicates that they find the term "America-Bashing" more profitable than the term "transatlantic relations." So it is not just the European media, which focuses on the negative aspects on the other side of the Atlantic.
Excerpts from Drozdiak's op-ed: Opinion polls cite widespread dismay with the Iraq war, our dog-eat-dog social model and the arrogance of an imperial superpower that places itself above international law. But behind the surveys about "why they hate us" lies a reservoir of goodwill waiting to be tapped among foreigners who would prefer to see the United States succeed rather than fail. This love-hate melange has perpetuated four modern myths about transatlantic relations that deserve to be debunked. Europe Tops US in Stock Market ValuePosted by Joerg Wolf in International Economics on Thursday, April 5. 2007
MSNBC publishes a Financial Times article:
Europe has eclipsed the US in stock market value for the first time since the first world war in another sign of the slipping of the global dominance of American capital markets. Europe's 24 stockmarkets, including Russia and emerging Europe, saw their capitalisation rise to $15,720bn (€11,819bn) at the end of last week, according to Thomson Financial data. That exceeded the $15,640bn market value of the US. (...)The Independent calls the shift "a historic occasion," but also describes the criticism of the comparison between the European continent and the United States: For the record, the figures come from Thomson Datastream, not the traditional calculators of indices, such as FTSE or MSCI. These others strip out government holdings and other shares that are not generally available to investors, which lowers the value of European markets, which include many partly privatised companies and the like. The first reaction of many on Wall Street yesterday was to dismiss the figures as a distortion or an irrelevance. Russia shouldn't be included as part of Europe, some said. Others asked, what is the point of a comparison with a geographical area that covers two and a half times as many people as the US? And still more said that FTSE and MSCI figures better reflected the size of the equity market available to investors, where the US still wins by anything from 15 per cent to a third. Fair points all, but none diminish the significance of the underlying trend identified in the Thomson figures.The Independent also points out: Now that the news is out there, it has immediately been pitched into the argument over whether New York is in danger of losing its position as the financial capital of the world. For London, it is another piece of evidence to back the Stock Exchange's boasts that it is attracting foreign companies that would previously have looked to list in the US. And for some Wall Streeters, it adds new urgency to their calls for looser regulation and other measures to win back lost business.Usually there are calls for looser regulation in Europe rather than in Wall Street... (Thanks to Zyme for pointing out this story.)
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