The Bin Laden PrismPosted by Nanne Zwagerman in Quotes on Saturday, April 5. 2008
Spiegel Online has an interview up with US author Steve Coll on his new book: 'The Bin Ladens: An Arabian Family in the American Century'. Steve Coll, who is currently Director of the New America Foundation, states the reasons for his interest in the Bin Laden family in the following way:
I believe that Osama bin Laden and the broad contradictions among religion, tradition and modernity in the Middle East, with enmity toward the West on one side and the attractiveness of our ideas and way of life on the other, is best understood through the prism of this clan.There are some intriguing 'did you know that...?' facts in the interview. For instance, both Bin Laden's father and Bin Laden's elder brother Salem died in airplane crashes. The general arguments on the contradictions of modernity in the Middle East, and the conceptualisation of fundamentalist Islam as an essentially modern phenomenon itself are perhaps more familiar. What Coll's angle does enlighten is the extent to which Osama Bin Laden and his family have a personal connection to the various conflicts and contradictions in the recent history of the Middle East, showing that history in an overarching frame. Spiegel Online: 'Osama bin Laden is Planning Something for the US Election' Brussels ForumPosted by Joerg Wolf in Transatlantic Relations on Wednesday, March 26. 2008 In just three years, the Brussels Forum has established itself as an elite annual conference for the key players in transatlantic relations. The Brussels Forum is what Davos is for the business elite and the Munich Security Conference for the defense politicians. Steve Clemons was impressed by this year's Brussels Forum from March 14-16. Dan Drezner has posted some good gossip and written something more serious for Newsweek. Constanze Stelzenmüller of the German Marshall Fund, the main organizer of the Brussels Forum, presented an interesting sounding paper: "America and Europe, seven years after 9/11: Hard power humbled, soft power exposed, and a looser, more pragmatic relationship," available for download as a PDF. NYT: Obama is Supported by the Vast Majority Democratic Foreign Policy AdvisorsPosted by Joerg Wolf in US Foreign Policy on Tuesday, November 13. 2007 James Traub had a very interesting article about Barack Obama's foreign policy creditentials in the New York Times. While the media and many Americans -- according to polls -- question his experience, the experts apparently prefer Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton: In mainstream foreign-policy circles, Barack Obama is seen as the true bearer of this vision. "There are maybe 200 people on the Democratic side who think about foreign policy for a living," as one such figure, himself unaffiliated with a campaign, estimates. "The vast majority have thrown in their lot with Obama." Obama got a bit frustrated at the end of an interview with James Traub, because of the constant criticism of his lack of foreign experience:
I find it difficult to form an opinion on the foreign policy positions of many presidential candidates based on their statements so far. While I consider Barack Obama very impressive (incl. the quotes in this article), I found his Foreign Affairs essay rather superficial. European Foreign PolicyPosted by Editors in Transatlantic Relations on Tuesday, October 16. 2007 Great quote by British Historian Timothy Garton Ash at the end of an interview with Spiegel International: "Brussels spends more money on cleaners than it does on people thinking about European foreign policy." Asked whether the EU would strongly oppose a possible war against Iran, he responded: "It's safe to say that Europe would be nearly unanimous on that count." But that's not enough unity for Garton Ash, who is one of the founders of the new European Council on Foreign Relations, which should "do the European thinking" and suggest policies to enable Europe to "speak with a clearer and more united voice to the rest of the world." The American (!) banker and philanthropist George Soros was "dissatisfied with the course of American foreign policy" and made a generous donation. So... Is the European Council on Foreign Relations supposed to come up with alternatives to US policy or even suggest opposition to the US?Europe in Iraq? Only On Its Own TermsPosted by Joerg Wolf in Transatlantic Relations on Sunday, September 30. 2007 I asked a sampling of European analysts what Europe could do to help stabilize Iraq. Most of the 14 respondents from ten European countries note the high stakes for the continent and its limited capabilities to contribute to stabilization efforts. Still, the answers do show a new willingness to contribute, but only on European terms. Many respondents suggest that Europe should pursue different policies than the US or make support dependent on more involvement in the decision-making process. First and foremost, European analysts do not support deploying troops under US command. However, some suggest a quid pro quo where Europe provides military resources and training if given a real stake in an international effort. Second, several respondents recommend that France mediate discussions among internal factions in Iraq. Efforts could focus on dialogue with groups that the US refuses to talk to and shall be aimed at reinvigorating Iraqi nationalism. Third, a diplomatic offensive involving and pressuring Iran and Syria is seen as essential, but experts also point to Turkey. Maintaining peace in Kurdistan could be encouraged through EU membership negotiations. I have written the survey conclusion for my day job at Atlantic Community: Europe Should Help Iraq, But Not Follow US Lead. It is the second part of our survey. US Think Tanker Considers the German EU Presidency SuccessfulPosted by Joerg Wolf in Transatlantic Relations on Thursday, June 28. 2007
Wess Mitchell, director of research at the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington DC, grades the German EU Presidency. Merkel gets a B for "re-starting [European] integration and As for "re-calibrating ties with Russia" and "re-energizing transatlantic relations," because:
Many Germans wanted Merkel to do the same on CIA overflights and missile defense. Her decision to downplay these disagreements and focus on common interests has given U.S.-EU ties their biggest boost in a decade.Perhaps the CIA renditions will create some tension in the US-German relationship in the next few weeks, if (!) the Spiegel article mentioned in the Atlantic Review post Will Merkel Request the Extradition of CIA Agents? accurately reflects the perception in Washington DC. Wess Mitchell's column let to an interesting discussion on the German-Polish relationship in the comments section. Read it all in the Atlantic Community. Full disclosure: I work for this new Open Think Tank on Global Issues. I'd appreciate your comments here on Atlantic Review and on Atlantic Community. Registration at the latter is real fast. Personal comment: Germany has worked hard on reconciliation and a deepening of ties with Poland. Besides, without German support, Poland might not have been able to join the EU in 2004. The German and the Polish people get along much better than our politicians do. I think, the current problem in German-Polish relations are the Kaczyński twins and the obnoxious German association of displaced persons led by Erika Steinbach. When both parties have left the political scene the German-Polish relationship will be much better. Joseph Nye Wants a Smarter SuperpowerPosted by Editors in US Foreign Policy on Saturday, May 5. 2007
"We live in an age of anxiety. People everywhere fear the next terrorist attack. Meanwhile, we slowly grow numb to Iraq’s endless string of kidnappings and suicide bombings. Between bird flu, tsunamis, and loose nukes, our list of fears is getting longer." explains Foreign Policy and lets 21 leading thinkers present solutions "that would make the world a better place."
One of those thinkers, Joseph S. Nye, would like to see a "smarter Superpower," because "America needs to combine hard and soft power into 'smart' power, as it did during the Cold War." Unfortunately only the first few paragraphs are online for free. There is even a blog on the subject of smart power run by a colloquia at the University of Southern California. Trans-Atlantic Cooperation: Are Europeans Unwilling to Share the Burden?Posted by Joerg Wolf in Transatlantic Relations on Wednesday, December 20. 2006
Ivo Daalder and James Goldgeier are disappointed by European contributions to the transatlantic alliance and want to globalize NATO to enhance burden sharing with other democracies. In their Financial Times op-ed "US and Europe must learn about alliances", the senior fellow at Brookings and the fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations point out:
In recent months George W. Bush has rediscovered the virtues of having allies and working within alliances. In every big challenge confronting the US – from Iraq to Afghanistan, from Iran to North Korea – he has sought to enlist the help of America’s traditional allies. But in many cases the very allies who bitterly complained about the US president’s unilateralism only a short time ago have been reluctant to do their part in helping multilateralism succeed.Personal opinion: The US chose multilateralism too late (and still does not embrace it fully in regard to the Iranian issue). If the US had accepted NATO's offer to help in Afghanistan right after 9/11, Europeans would be more committed to Afghanistan now. Re Iran: I believe the US has not been as supportive of the European negotiations as Daalder and Goldgeier claim. Besides, not the Europeans, but China and Russia are the obstacle for "real sanctions" on Iran. Sanctions only have a chance to work, if most countries support them. Still, Daalder and Goldgeier make many good points in their criticism of Europe, but they also exaggerate a bit, which is fine since it is an op-ed, which is available in their blog America Abroad. What are your thoughts about the Bush administrations "rediscovery" of multilateralism and the European response? Related posts in the Atlantic Review: • Germany and the United States Failed to Train Afghanistan's Police, • Round-up of Opinions Before the NATO summit • Should Germany Send Troops to Southern Afghanistan? and • Afghanistan Intervention "on the cheap" Endnote: Daniel Fried, assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, discusses trans-Atlantic cooperation on Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq and previews U.S.-Europe Relations for 2007. See article at the State Department. Charles Kupchan about "The Next Era in Transatlantic Relations"Posted by Editors in Transatlantic Relations on Friday, December 15. 2006
Charles A. Kupchan, Director of Europe Studies at the Council of Foreign Relations writes in the National Interest (Sept./Oct. 2006) about the new era in transatlantic relations after 9/11. Full article available for free at the Council of Foreign Relations. First paragraph:
The Atlantic order is in the midst of a fundamental transition. The transatlantic discord that has emerged since the late 1990s marks a historical breakpoint, not a temporary aberration. The foundational principles of the Atlantic security order that emerged after World War II have been compromised. American and European interests have diverged, institutionalized cooperation can no longer be taken for granted, and a shared Western identity has attenuated. We are at the dawn of a new era in the Atlantic relationship. Rather than trying to recreate the past, the Atlantic democracies should move forward by acknowledging that the tight-knit alliance of the Cold War years is gone for good. Instead, they should accept that the character of the Atlantic order is undergoing a profound transformation, seek to understand the attributes of the emerging order, and figure out how to make the most of its cooperative potential. Two American Experts Comment on the European Reactions to the U.S. ElectionsPosted by Joerg Wolf in Transatlantic Relations on Thursday, November 16. 2006
The Atlantic Review has already written about German Reactions to the Midterm Elections. Americans are now commenting about the European reactions to the elections: "Aspen Institute Berlin Director Jeffrey Gedmin has an interesting and useful piece, 'Even Happier than the Democrats,' in the Weekly Standard," writes Steve Clemons, director of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation and also adds his own thoughts in his Washington Note.
Gedmin: When European commentators say they are still yearning for an end to American unilateralism, moral crusades, and the influence of "fundamentalist evangelicals," what they really mean is that they are longing for a United States just like secular, post-national, consensus-seeking, Social Democratic Europe. But, of course, even with Democrats controlling the House and the Senate, it ain't gonna happen.Clemons agrees to some degree, but adds: Europe yearns for a pragmatic, problem-fixing America, engaged in the world's real problems and building international collaborations to meet these challenges. America has departed this space on ideological quests and left a giant void in global affairs that the Europeans have had to partially fill.Related post in the Atlantic Review: Will US Foreign Policy Change if the Democrats Win the Midterm Elections? ENDNOTE: There was quite a stir in the blogosphere about the news that former Abu Ghraib prisoners, supported by an American NGO, seek prosecution of Secretary Rumsfeld in Germany. Several popular American bloggers misunderstood the Time Magazine article and incorrectly blamed the German government and vented their anger. Some even made Nazi references, as reported in a previous post. U.S. law professor Andrew Hammel writes in his blog that there have been 53 petitions to invoke Germany's "universal jurisdiction" law for war crimes (adopted in 2002), but "none has been acted on, according to this week's Die Zeit, so there's pretty much zero chance of Rumsfeld going to prison in Germany." Besides, yesterday, an association of peace groups filed a lawsuit against Chancellor Merkel and Defense Minister Jung for "preparing an offensive war." They claim that the White Paper on German Security Policy violates Germany's constitution, reports Die Welt (in German). Thus, the significance of the lawsuit against Rumsfeld should not be exaggerated. Bad News from GermanyPosted by Editors in German Politics on Thursday, November 9. 2006
November 9th is Germany's "Day of Destiny." Great and horrible events happened on that day in German history. Today a shocking survey by the respected Friedrich Ebert Foundation was released and reminds us of the horrible events. DW World reports about:
Nine percent of those polled believed that under some circumstances a dictatorship can be a better system to run a state than a democracy. An iron-fisted leader who would "govern Germany for the benefit of all" would be supported by 15 percent of the respondents. One in four -- 26 percent -- said they favored a single party in Germany "that would embody the national community as a whole." (...)More info in German in Der Tagesspiegel. The 185 pages survey "Vom Rand zur Mitte: Rechtsextreme Einstellungen und ihre Einflussfaktoren in Deutschland" can be downloaded at the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung (pdf). Good news: New Munich Synagogue Opens on Nazi Persecution Anniversary More news from Germany: • Panel Expects Higher Economic Growth • Man Arrested in Germany on Suspicion of Illicit Arms Deal • Suitcase Bomber Says Mohammed Cartoons Set Him Off • Germany's population will drop by as many as 12 million people by 2050 due to low birth rates Iraq: Analysis of U.S. Media Coverage and the Mortality EstimatesPosted by Joerg Wolf in US Foreign Policy on Monday, October 30. 2006
While "the Bush administration has complained about the tenor of media coverage of the war in Iraq ever since the April 2003 looting that followed the fall of Baghdad," negative stories in the U.S. media have only "outweighed positive ones by a factor of roughly 2.5 to 1 across several major outlets and in the course of the three years of the U.S. presence in Iraq." according to Michael O'Hanlon and Nina Kamp. The Brookings Fellow and his senior research assistant argue in the Washington Quarterly (pdf) that the ratio between positive and negative stories is an accurate mirror of the negative developments in Iraq. Of course, the ratio is about the general media coverage; the ratio is different for each media outlet. They also write:
Many critics of the media believe that negative coverage could cost the United States the war. By their reasoning, the United States could fail in Iraq only if our national resolve falters, which could only happen if the American public gets an unfairly pessimistic view of the situation as a result of the media's fixation on violence and other bad news. If the United States and its coalition partners do not prevail, however, the failure will most likely result from events on the ground there, not from an untimely wavering of domestic political support. In fact, more than three years into the campaign, the U.S. body politic remains surprisingly tolerant of the mission in Iraq and, in general, resists calls for immediate withdrawal, despite far more bad news than anyone in the administration forecast or even thought possible when the war was first sold to the nation and launched. (...)US public opinion might have shifted dramatically since that poll was conducted in the spring of 2006... The latest bad news from Iraq: • The Washington Post reports today (October 30, 2006) that "the U.S. military announced the death of the 100th servicemember in Iraq this month." • And NYT writes about a government report: "The American military has not properly tracked hundreds of thousands of weapons intended for Iraqi security forces." Are US weapons killing US soldiers? Mortality Estimate: Shaun Waterman analyzes for United Press International the criticism of the Johns Hopkins survey about excess mortality in Iraq and also points out that "the U.S. military's own estimates suggest that the casualty rate for Iraqis is five times what it was at the beginning of 2004": The U.S. military's estimates, buried in a little-noticed recent report to Congress, are drawn from a daily tabulation of "significant activity reports," about "incidents observed by or reported to U.S. forces," known as the SIGACT database. do not distinguish deaths from injuries, nor between Iraqi civilians and members of the army, police or other government security forces. The estimates "are derived from unverified initial reports submitted by Coalition elements responding to an incident; the inconclusivity of these numbers constrains them to be used for comparative purposes only," says the report, titled "Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq." But the comparisons they enable show that average casualty rates for Iraqis have sky-rocketed from just over 20 per day in the first quarter of 2004, to nearly 120 per day between May and August of 2006. (...) By way of comparison, Human Rights Watch has estimated Saddam Hussein's regime killed 250,000 to 290,000 people over 20 years.Let's not forget Afghanistan, writes Bradford Plumer: Thanks to the colossal cock-up in Iraq, virtually no one has taken a hard look at the flailing occupation of Afghanistan and asked whether, in retrospect, it was also a mistake to invade that country. No one asks that. Afghanistan's the ultimate uncontroversial war—even liberals point to it approvingly to show they're not reflexively dovish. But Stephen Zunes is right -- the Afghan war's not going that well, Osama bin Laden has eluded capture, and second-guessing the various decisions made back in 2001 to go to war really shouldn't be out of bounds.Related post in the Atlantic Review: Europe Loses Afghanistan and America Looks at Nice Pictures.
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