United States and Poland Agree on Missile Defense DealPosted by Kyle Atwell in European Issues, Transatlantic Relations, US Foreign Policy on Friday, August 15. 2008
From the New York Times:
The United States and Poland reached a long-stalled deal on Thursday to place an American missile defense base on Polish territory, in the strongest reaction so far to Russia’s military operation in Georgia.I wonder how far Russia-West relations will spiral? We may continue to see a tit-for-tat exchange that has real consequences on the institutions and defense postures that govern these delicate relations. From EU Observer: The US missile deal had an instant impact on already fragile Polish-Russian relations, with Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, cancelling a scheduled trip to Warsaw in September as soon as media reported the initialling ceremony would take place.See also from Atlantic Review: * Georgia Conflict Gives Boost to European Missile Defense Talks * Euro-Missile Talks Are Back, Leaving "New Europe" Behind US Nukes not Secure in EuropePosted by Editors in Transatlantic Relations on Tuesday, June 24. 2008 "Most European military sites equipped with US nuclear weapons fail to meet Pentagon security requirements, according to a US Air Force study." reports Reuters:
Though, rather than calling for such security upgrades of military sites, many German politicians call for the removal of US nuclear weapons from German soil. Our reader Zyme writes this guest post: Continue reading "US Nukes not Secure in Europe" The Last American Veteran of World War I and the Costs of WarPosted by Joerg Wolf in Transatlantic Relations on Saturday, March 8. 2008
Wikipedia tries to document the surviving veterans from all World War I combatant nations. The surviving veterans remind us that the era of wars between the world's major powers is not ancient history. I wonder what these veterans think when they hear how today's politicians talk about the risks of terrorism. Do they think that this is just scare-mongering to win votes and that we shall consider ourselves to be lucky to live in such peaceful times? That Al Qaeda is just a nuissance compared to the Wehrmacht or the Red Army? The human and financial costs of WWI were huge. America's current wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are also expensive: $3.5 billion per week, according to William Hartung. German Joys quotes some comparisons from his article: The "whole international community spends less than $400 million per year on the International Atomic Energy Agency, the primary institution for monitoring and preventing the spread of nuclear weapons; that's less than one day's worth of war costs." And the US government's yearly budget for combating global warming is as big as two weeks of expenses in Iraq and Afghanistan. More efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation and combating global warming are at least as important as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Julianne Smith and Alexander Lennon of the Center for Strategic and International Studies contend that climate change will further disrupt the stability of already volatile regions, which has the potential of producing multitudes of discontented individuals prone to radicalization... Germany Seeks Multilateralization of Nuclear Fuel CyclePosted by Joerg Wolf in German Politics, International Economics on Tuesday, February 19. 2008 The Federal Foreign Office announced today:
Could this be a workable compromise for the conflict over Iran's nuclear program? A Different Kind of Quagmire: IranPosted by Kyle Atwell in Transatlantic Relations, US Foreign Policy on Tuesday, February 12. 2008
Tired of the same old boring quagmire? Looking for a new kind of quagmire to talk about with your friends? Good news if you are, because Iraq is not the only quagmire around. No need to look far—keep it in the “axis of evil.” Iraq’s neighbor, Iran is also a quagmire of a sorts… a diplomatic quagmire for the transatlantic allies.
I’ll corroborate: the United States and Europe have been trying to anneal sanctions against Iran through the United Nations Security Council for years, only to have their proposals consistently rebuffed and watered down by China and Russia. The latest US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), “Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities” (PDF version), is unlikely to make the pursuit of sanctions any easier: We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program; we also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons.Good news, right? Only kinda, according to Ralf Fuecks who points out at Atlantic Community that Iran remains a threat, regardless of the NIE: Continue reading "A Different Kind of Quagmire: Iran" Military Leaders Outline Plan for New Transatlantic BargainPosted by Kyle Atwell in Transatlantic Relations, US Foreign Policy on Friday, January 25. 2008
A group of European and American military leaders co-authored a report that was released last week, titled Toward a Grand Strategy for an Uncertain World, Renewing Transatlantic Partnership (PDF version available from CSIS). The top brass – all with NATO experience – argue that the Alliance remains critical to both Europe and the US:
We are convinced that there is no security for Europe without the US, but we also dare to submit that there is no hope for the US to sustain its role as the world’s sole superpower without the Europeans as allies.The manifesto begins by arguing that many current and future threats – such as terrorism, international crime, demographic shifts, energy security, climate change, etc. – cannot effectively be addressed by any single country on its own. Instead, NATO provides the best opportunity for western countries to address new threats because it "links together a group of countries that share the most important values and convictions and that took a decision to defend those values and convictions collectively." Continue reading "Military Leaders Outline Plan for New Transatlantic Bargain"
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Defined tags for this entry: Afghanistan, Alliance, Defense, Democracy, European Union, Free Trade, Human Rights, Merkel, Military, NATO, Nukes, Rule of Law, Solidarity, Strategy
Euro-Missile Talks Are Back, Leaving "New Europe" BehindPosted by Kyle Atwell in Transatlantic Relations, US Foreign Policy on Thursday, January 17. 2008 After months of pitfalls and procrastination, talks have picked up again on the placement of US missile defense sites in the Czech Republic and Poland – and negotiations are not getting any easier for the United States. The NYT reports:
What I find interesting is that Europe is supposed to benefit from the missile shield, and yet is now demanding more money and goodies from the US to secure European support. The harder line by the new Polish government is not a surprise, but nonetheless will increase uncertainty for a project that is already facing domestic opposition in Europe, official opposition from Russia, and is not too popular among Democrats in Congress either – all this during a US election year. Congress is wary about expanding missile defense systems based in large part on high costs and frequent let-downs in the technology. According to a recent report by the reputable non-partisan Congressional Budget Office:
The new Euro-missile sites in the Czech and Poland are alone estimated to cost roughly $18 billion between 2007-2017. I wonder if Poland's harder line signals the death of Rumsfeld’s unequivocally pro-American "New Europe"? The US appears willing to entertain Polish demands for now, with a Pentagon spokesman stating, "Because of [Poland's special relationship with the U.S.], we believe that we can overcome whatever differences may exist on this issue very quickly." However, there is definitely a notable reticence to back US missile defense plans from the new Polish government that was not found in its predecessor.
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Defined tags for this entry: Defense, Military, Missile Defense, Nukes, Poland, Proliferation, Russia
Contemplating Germany with NukesPosted by Joerg Wolf in German Politics, Transatlantic Relations on Wednesday, December 26. 2007
One of the questions Zenpundit Mark Safranski and his readers are thinking about in this holiday season is:
Is that really the case? How many folks are contemplating these days whether Germany would violate the non-proliferation treaty and waste billions of Euros to get nukes? John Jay responds to the Zenpundit in the group blog Chicago Boyz. He says that he does not worry about Germany or Japan if they obtain nukes in the near term, but also states:
Sorry, I can't respond right now. Naughty Hitler [NSFW] just ordered me to get back to my clan to celebrate Christmas and plan the next world war. Happy Holidays everyone! Enjoy your Zen meditation about the future of the free world. Get inspired by the Queen's Christmas Broadcast from 1957. (German politicians' Christmas messages do not change that much over the decades either.) And if you want to get sentimental about war in "the good old days," then read about the 1914 and 1915 Christmas Truce. Related posts in the Atlantic Review: WSJ: Russia and Jihadists Target America's "Giant Aircraft Carrier with Sausages", United States Apparently Removes Nuclear Weapons from German Base Ramstein, and A World Free of Nuclear Weapons?. WSJ: Russia and Jihadists Target America's "Giant Aircraft Carrier with Sausages"Posted by Joerg Wolf in German Politics, Transatlantic Relations on Monday, November 19. 2007 Mark Helprin, a senior fellow at the Claremont Institute, is concerned about Germany's security. He describes Germany as the "soft underbelly of Europe," which presents a tempting target for Russia and the Jihadists. Having been deeply humiliated in recent years, Russia is now "like Germany between the wars." Moscow is encouraged by European pacifisim and US failure in Iraq and views Germany as "the strategic gate to Western Europe," says Helprin. And the Jihadists are interested in Germany, because it is according to Helprin the "richest target least defended," because Germany does not spend much on defense and lacks an independent expeditionary capability and nuclear weapons. Helprin assumes that nukes would deterr Jihadists... He also opines that NATO would not retaliate with nuclear weapons, if a member country was attacked by a nuclear weapon. Germany, says Helprin, "sleeps and dreams unaware" of all theses threats. And the The US just views Germany as a "giant aircraft carrier with sausages." His entire post is available in the Wall Street Journal's Opinion Journal (HT: ROA and GM Roper). I find Helprin's comments on Russia more convincing than those on the "Jihadists." Air Force Incompetence: Oops, What Are These Nukes Doing Here?Posted by Joerg Wolf in US Foreign Policy on Tuesday, September 11. 2007 On the eve of the anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff told Congress according to NTI: "We recognize that our first and most urgent priority is to prevent nuclear weapons from coming into this country and preventing dirty bombs from being constructed and detonated." Eric Hundman writes about "America's loose nukes" in FP Passport: "Last week, the Pentagon admitted that a B-52 had mistakenly flown nuclear-armed cruise missiles across the United States. And worse, for almost fourteen hours no one at the base of departure, on the bomber itself, or at the base of arrival had any idea something was wrong." North Dakota News adds: "The airmen who first discovered the bombs could not believe what they were seeing and had a hard time convincing superiors that the missiles on the bomber were, in fact, carrying nuclear weapons." Personal conclusion: Neither this kind of White House humor (if the story in the biography is true) nor the air force's screw up is encouraging. In less open societies than the US, such nuclear screw ups would not become public: I wonder how many of these incidents happen in Russia, China, India, Pakistan or Israel... Will the movie Broken Arrow be reality one day? Related: "America, stop waving the nuclear threat at potential adversaries," says Jack Mendelsohn, who was a US State Department official and a member of the US SALT and START delegations. Writing for the Christian Science Monitor, he criticizes that "four Republican candidates Mitt Romney, Duncan Hunter, Jim Gilmore, and Rudy Giuliani have already expressed their willingness to use 'tactical' nuclear weapons against Iran to prevent it from obtaining nuclear weapons." He argues: Every time the United States threatens a potential adversary with nuclear weapons it tells the world that these weapons are acceptable instruments of modern warfare and that there are no political or moral constraints on US behavior. It is overwhelmingly in the US national interest to preserve the "taboo" on nuclear weapons use and to seek to reduce the salience of nuclear weapons in US security policy. United States Apparently Removes Nuclear Weapons from German Base RamsteinPosted by Joerg Wolf in Transatlantic Relations on Sunday, July 15. 2007
Nuclear inspection documents indicate that the U.S. Air Force may have permanently removed its nukes from Ramstein. This would mean that Germany’s contribution to NATO's nuclear mission now is reduced to Büchel Air Base.
The Atlantic Review's long-time reader and friend Marian has recommended an excellent article by Hans M. Kristensen in the Strategic Security Blog by the Federation of American Scientists. Quote on "Germany's Nuclear Decline" and the prospect of throwing NATO's principle of nuclear burdensharing into disarray: A poll published by Der Spiegel in 2005 revealed an overwhelming support across the political spectrum for a complete withdrawal of nuclear weapons from Germany. The German government said in May 2005 that it would raise the issue of continued deployment within NATO, but officials later told Der Spiegel that the governmentMr Kristensen also points out that "Despite the apparent reduction, NATO's Nuclear Planning Group (NPG) as recently as June 15, 2007, reaffirmed the importance of deploying U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe." Personal comment: We need to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in our defense planning, if we want to convince Iran and other countries to give up their assumed nuclear weapons programs. Thus the removal of some US nukes from Germany is a good step. RELATED, sort of: "Five more U.S. Army sites in Germany will be closed through 2009 as part of a wider effort to realign the military's overseas structure, the U.S. Defense Department said Wednesday." writes The International Herald Tribune. Missile Defense: Some German Social Democrats Act Like It's 2002Posted by Joerg Wolf in German Politics, Transatlantic Relations on Saturday, March 24. 2007
Judy Dempsey writes in the International Herald Tribune about the German positions on the US missile defense project in Central Europe:
Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, trying to counter the increasingly anti-American attitude of her coalition partners, the Social Democrats, has called on the European Union to find a common position over American plans to deploy part of an anti-missile defense shield in Eastern Europe. (...) In fact, the two parties in Merkel's coalition appear more divided over the missile shield than other EU member states, which have been far less vocal or critical of the U.S. missile shield. Kurt Beck, leader of the Social Democrats, said this week that the missile defense shield would lead to a new arms race and that it should be discussed within NATO, or even abandoned. (...)Prof. Drezner recommends Dempsey's article and draws a sharper conclusion: "The German Social Democrats party like it's 2002" One of the key points I was trying to make in my Foreign Affairs article was that the Bush foreign policy of 2007 looks somewhat different from the Bush foreign policy of 2002 -- it's more multilateral in both form and substance. This has been a common theme among foreign policy wonks across the ideological divide. However, the word has yet to reach the German Social Democrats. (...) One gets the sense that domestic political calculations are behind the SPD's thinking... much as it was back in 2002.Personal comments: Not every Social Democrat is against the Missile Defense project. Ulrich Klose, deputy chairman of the Bundestag's committee on foreign relations, told Die Welt (in German, via Kosmoblog) that Europe would be without protection, if Iran develops nukes and there are not any missile defense bases in Poland and the Czech Republic.
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