Five Reasons Obama would not be Elected in EuropePosted by Kyle Atwell in Transatlantic Relations, US Domestic and Cultural Issues on Tuesday, November 4. 2008
Denis Boyles argues in the National Review that while the vast majority of Europeans are hoping Obama will be elected President of the United States today, he would not have a chance of success were he running to lead any European country. Boyles offers five reasons why:
1. “His tax policies are frightening,” in that they are too far left for Europe. 2. “His views on abortion are way too extreme for Europeans.” 3. “His lack of experience means trouble.” 4. “He’s in love with failed ideas.” Boyles calls Obama a “socialist romantic”, compares his policies to the EU Constitution, and then argues that the dream of Obama and all liberals is to have kids raised by the state – the first argument makes no sense and the second argument is simply not true. 5. “His name, incidentally, is Barack Hussein Obama. Sorry to save this for last, but the sad fact is a politician with Obama’s racial and ethnic background wouldn’t stand a chance in the U.K., France, Germany, Italy, or anywhere else in the European Union no matter how charming his speeches were.” Continue reading "Five Reasons Obama would not be Elected in Europe" FT: "Speed of European Response Leaves US Trailing"Posted by Joerg Wolf in European Issues, International Economics on Friday, October 3. 2008 I thought I would never read a headline like this in an Anglo-American newspaper. It was the headline for the "European View" column by Paul Betts in the Financial Times on Tuesday:
US Dollar RalliesPosted by Joerg Wolf in International Economics on Sunday, August 10. 2008 The psychology of global markets has shifted hugely over recent days as it becomes clear that Europe, Australasia and parts of Asia are sliding into recession. The US dollar has launched its best rally in half a decade, reflecting a recognition that half the world is in even worse shape than the US. In fact, America is the only G7 country to eke out modest growth this summer. How to Make the G8 More Effective?Posted by Joerg Wolf in International Economics, Transatlantic Relations on Saturday, July 19. 2008 The G8 used to be criticized as an evil capitalist group of powerful countries that determines world politics and economics without legitimacy like the UN. There has not been much of such criticism at this year's summit in Japan. This time, lack of effectiveness was the most common criticism. The G8 is increasingly seen as a Western talking shop that is doing photo-ops with rock stars and third world leaders, but fails to act on its past promises on development aid and is increasingly incapable to shape international economic affairs. Besides, Senators McCain and Obama recently had a dispute as to whether Russia should be excluded from the Group of Eight. Consequently, there have been several reform proposals to make the G8 more effective: L20: upgrade the existing G20 The Atlantic Community explains these proposals and asks: "Should the G8 be enlarged to include new major international players or contracted to ensure effectiveness?" If you register on Atlantic Community, then you can vote on the above options. The Impact of the Oil Shock: Trade Networks ShrinkPosted by Editors in International Economics on Monday, July 7. 2008 This is a guest blog post by Donald Stadler, an American living and working in London: Washington Post economics columnist Robert Samuelson recently wrote a piece about the trade impact of the oil shock on the US, quoting economist Jeffrey Rubin of CIBC World Markets, who predicts that oil will go to $225 a barrel/$7 a gallon before this is finished. Apart from the obvious impact on per-liter fuel prices in Europe (I have heard of diesel prices as high as £1.99 a litre in the UK), there are some interesting side effects on world trade. The bottom line is that shipping cheap manufactures thousands of miles make much less sense than it has this past decade. Since 2000 the cost of shipping a 40 foot shipping container from East Asia to the US has gone from $3000 to $8000, and if oil prices go to $200 a barrel this will go to $15,000 per container. Some production will be brought back to the US and Europe, and other production will go from Asia to nearby low-wage countries like Mexico (for the US) and Poland/Bulgaria/Romania, and perhaps Russia and Turkey (for the EU). This may be good news for factory workers in Italy and in depressed areas of Germany and the UK. Continue reading "The Impact of the Oil Shock: Trade Networks Shrink" Making Transatlantic Economic Cooperation More InterestingPosted by Nanne Zwagerman in Transatlantic Relations on Wednesday, June 25. 2008
In reaction to a previous post about the boring, technical nature of transatlantic economic cooperation, Atlantic Review reader John in Michigan made the important point that "the political process requires an engaged citizenry to function well. Any topic or area that an ordinary citizen would rightly find dull, doesn't belong in politics".
Transatlantic economic cooperation is a process that produces winners and losers and thereby has political implications. As it deals with economic relations between the world's two largest economies by far, these implications will likely prove to be significant. The cooperation process, however, is technical to a degree where the political implications are likely to be registered late, and to lead to oblique reactions. At the core, being 'dull but important' is a dilemma, which has to be solved by making transatlantic economic cooperation more interesting. This could for instance be done by clarifying the political implications of very technical issues like eliminating 'non-tariff barriers'. That, however, is a very difficult analysis to make, and will be contested. Another solution is to make the issue more interesting by addressing more strategic and political issues. That is the proposal of Henning Meyer of the Social Europe Blog, in a policy paper written for the Global Policy Institute. Continue reading "Making Transatlantic Economic Cooperation More Interesting" Transatlantic Economic Cooperation - Dull but ImportantPosted by Nanne Zwagerman in Transatlantic Relations on Thursday, June 5. 2008
Interest in transatlantic economic cooperation is hard to sell to the public. That is the conclusion of Philip Whyte at the Centre for European Reform:
If the potential economic gains from deepening the transatlantic economy are marked, why is the TEC’s [Transatlantic Economic Council - Nanne] agenda not better known? The (largely justified) perception that it is dull does not help. Let’s face it: the mutual recognition of GAAP and IFRS accountancy standards, or, for that matter, the transatlantic dimension of the EU’s chemicals directive, are not the sorts of subject that most normal people are inclined to discuss when they kick back and relax after work.A lot of transatlantic economic cooperation is very detailed work that is hard to render in political terms. The overall direction towards greater liberalisation of trade might be worth talking about. But that political aspect has become murky, hidden behind the details, implicit. That is partially because it has become presumed to be only responsible position by much of the media. Non-tariff barriers as dealt with by the TEC are a catch-all phrase for regulation that sometimes largely serves to harass imports, sometimes just hasn't been coordinated, but in other cases serves political goals other than rank protectionism. It has become hard to have a sensible debate on the balance of this as well as other trade topics because the only positions that are argued are either an implicit bias in favour of all forms of liberalisation, or the diametrical opposite, which is in favour of protectionism as a goal in itself -- the thereby 'unserious' left. High Demand Or Rather An Oil Bubble?Posted by Sonja Bonin in International Economics on Friday, May 23. 2008 A tip from our reader Don has led us to an article in the London Times. In it, economics columnist Anatole Kaletsky argues that the astronomical oil price is not caused by economic fundamentals like supply and demand,
The article quotes a book by George Soros which is available on Amazon.de or Amazon.com. Top Four Arms Exporters: USA, Russia, Germany and FrancePosted by Kyle Atwell in European Issues, Transatlantic Relations on Friday, May 16. 2008
Observing Hermann has posted a revealing article that references the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s (SIPRI) most recent survey on global arms transfers (HT: Joe Noory):
The survey says that the USA, Russia and Germany are the world’s leading weapons exporters, with Germany’s latest weapons export piece of the pie profits coming in at around $3.395 billion. Damn, just think of all the ploughshares you could buy with that.Taking a look at the numbers more closely reveals some interesting facts: In 2007:• The USA, Russia, and Germany held 31, 19, and 14 percent of global exports respectively • France was the fourth largest arms exporter, with 11% of the global market From 2006 to 2007: • Russia’s market share dropped 25% to 19% • Germany’s market share rose 11% to 14% • France’s market share rose 6% to 11% The chart above shows Germany's global arms exports have increased steadily over the past few years. This is interesting considering Germany's resistance to take on an active combat role in Afghanistan, instead preferring to focus on reconstruction projects. As Observing Hermann wryly states: All I can say is that it’s good to know that all of these German weapons are being used for goodness and niceness and purely defensive purposes (did you know that Wehrmacht meant defensive force?), not like some other countries’ weapons out there, if you know what I’m sayin’. Otherwise a whole lot of people in this country wouldn’t be able to sleep well at night.Related posts on Atlantic Review: • Afghanistan: Merkel has “No Time” for Burden Sharing Proposals • Afghanistan: NATO Crisis Gets Worse • War for Dummies: Step 1, Fighting is Necessary • Afghanistan: Fighting is Not Most Important Europe Lacks a Risk CulturePosted by Joerg Wolf in International Economics on Friday, May 9. 2008
Sounds familar. See "Germany's Innovation Dilemma" on Atlantic Community. German Banks and the US Mortgage CrisisPosted by Joerg Wolf in German Politics, International Economics on Tuesday, May 6. 2008 Deutsche Bank got a lot of negative press coverage in the United States. David Vickrey, who used to work on corporate finance transactions at Deutsche Bank Securiites and Barclays Capital, has written extensively in his blog Dialog International about the involvement of German banks in the US mortgage crisis. Here are a couple of posts in chronological order (latest on top): Karma and Bad Times for Deutsche Bank in America (April 27, 2008) Greed and Fear: US Subprime Crisis Takes Its Toll in Germany (April 9, 2008) The Subprime Crisis Leads to Mad Mergers in Germany (April 1, 2008) German Government: Please Sue Deutsche Bank (March 10, 2008) Deutsche Bank: America's Foreclosure King (January 24, 2008) What Schadenfreude?Posted by Joerg Wolf in German Politics, International Economics on Friday, May 2. 2008 German Bundesbankers expect a gradual slowdown of the economy as a result of weaker global growth, higher oil prices and a stronger euro. They are not concerned about any direct fallout from the US mortgage crisis, writes Ralph Atkins in the Financial Times. The article's headline is "Schadenfreude stirs in resilient Germany," but Atkins only claims once that "across Germany, a sense of schadenfreude has even started to emerge." His only indication is that "Peer Steinbrück, finance minister, has long maintained that a run on a bank, as seen with Northern Rock in the UK, would not happen in Germany." Well, many Germans are scared about their jobs and worry about poverty in their later retirement. Many are so concerned about the financial markets that they do not invest their savings, but keep them on a bank account with low interest, which is bad for retirement plans and for the economy. That's why the finance minister tries to reassure the public. That's not Schadenfreude. Perhaps the folks at the Financial Times felt compelled to use a German word in their headline. Next time write "Blitzkrieg" or "Kindergarten" or address people as "Herr Steinbrück" rather than "Mr. Steinbrück" (a weird habit of some). Otherwise the article is good and describes what has been going on:
Atkins ends with an FT typical conclusion: I believe "steadier but lower" is the very much preferred model in economic (and political) matters over here.
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