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The Increasing Importance of the Transatlantic Alliance

"The transatlantic alliance is likely to become more relevant as new powers rise." That is the conclusion of the report "The Transatlantic Alliance in a Multipolar World" (pdf) by Thomas Wright and Richard Weitz, which was just published by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

The most interesting argument in the report is IMHO: "The future appears likely to bring multipolarity without multilateralism. It will thus fall to the United States and Europe to act as a convenor of like-minded countries to ensure that the integrity and effectiveness of the international order is preserved."

This is of great relevance because:

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China, EU & the United States: Holy Trinity or Ménage à Trois?

Stanley Crossick, a "European of British nationality," has published an essay which argues that a strong trilateral relationship, reinforced by three strong bilateral relationships is essential. He wrote a short version for Atlantic Review:

In the coming 20 years, the China-US-EU relationship will decide the trend of international relations. (Zbigniew Brzezinski: c 2004)

Since the end of the Cold War, a bi-polar world has become mono-polar but may be in the process of being transformed into a multi-polar world or, preferably, a multilateral one. Globalisation and rapid scientific and technological advancements are drastically transforming international relations. Although political ideology is no longer a driving force, it takes a generation or two to eliminate recent dogma, prejudices and perceptions. Regional cooperation and development have become important factors.

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Europeans View China as Biggest Threat to Global Security

In April 2006, the Atlantic Review posted Poll: 45% of Germans consider U.S. more dangerous than Iran.
Perceptions have changed.
Spiegel International reports:
China has now overtaken the United States as the greatest perceived threat to global stability in the eyes of Europeans, according to the opinion poll commissioned by the Financial Times. The poll, carried out by the Harris agency between March 27 and April 8 and published on Tuesday, found that 35 percent of respondents in the five largest EU states see China as a bigger threat to world stability than any other state.

Moreover, the United States is also doing better in popularity contests: Atlantic Community noted: "For the first time since 2005, the number of people abroad that view the US as a positive force has increased slightly, to 35 percent."

Related posts in the Atlantic Review:

Europe is a Threat to the United States

Transatlantic Foreign Policy Attitudes and Threat Perceptions

America Helping China

When Gerhard Schroeder suggested lifting the EU's arms embargo on China, many Americans were furious. Never mind that there was never sufficient support for such a move in Germany and in the European Union. Anyway, it now seems that China will profit in some other ways from the United States. The Washington Times:
A Chinese company with ties to Beijing's military and past links to Saddam Hussein's army in Iraq and the Taliban will gain access to U.S. defense-network technology under a proposed merger, Pentagon officials say. (...) Rep. Duncan Hunter, California Republican and ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee, said he is worried the deal will lead to the loss of sensitive technology to China.
Also, the government of Iraq makes an arms deal with China. Washington Post:
Iraq has ordered $100 million worth of light military equipment from China for its police force, contending that the United States was unable to provide the materiel and is too slow to deliver arms shipments, Iraqi President Jalal Talabani said yesterday. The China deal, not previously made public, has alarmed military analysts who note that Iraq's security forces already are unable to account for more than 190,000 weapons supplied by the United States, many of which are believed to be in the hands of Shiite and Sunni militias, insurgents and other forces seeking to destabilize Iraq and target U.S. troops.
This reminds me of Representative Murtha's statement from 2006: "The only people who want us in Iraq is Iran and al-Qaeda." Well, European policy analysts want Americans to stay in Iraq as well...