Britain: Pro-European And Pro-American At Once?Posted by Sonja Bonin in Transatlantic Relations on Tuesday, May 20. 2008 Gordon Brown’s administration, despite its domestic (foremost economic) troubles, has a great foreign policy opportunity, claims Philip Stephens in the Financial Times:
While Foreign Minister David Miliband insists on the "special relationship" between Britain and the US, he's also been making remarks hinting at a new recognition of Great Britain being part of Europe, says Stephens.
Eurosceptism Does Not Win Elections in BritainPosted by Editors in Transatlantic Relations on Saturday, November 3. 2007
Anti-Americanism can only have a small influence on winning elections. Likewise nobody gets elected in Britain by being Eurosceptic, argues Alex Harrowell in A Fistful of Euros and goes back in history, when Tony Blair characterized as a poodle, but not Bush's poodle:
1997 was the election when John Majors campaign ran huge posters of Tony Blair as a poodle on Helmut Kohls knee; and it wasnt a great year for Eurosceptic Tories, was it? Of course there are confounding factors. Euroscepticism in 1997 involved either voting for the proto-UKIP Referendum party or a Conservative party as popular as nuclear waste; probably the issue was buried under the Labour landslide in places. The principle, however, holds; nobody gets elected in Britain by being Eurosceptic. There are no votes in it; in a sense, Euroscepticism is a luxury.He also points out that a solid majority in Britain "supports EU membership and has done consistently over time. Further, the public does not worry very much about Europe; some 4 per cent according to a recent poll." Will Brown's Dinner With Merkel Leave Bush Hungry?Posted by Joerg Wolf in Transatlantic Relations on Thursday, July 19. 2007 Traditionally, the British prime minister's first foreign visit is to Washington, but Gordon Brown chose dinner with Angela Merkel instead. Is this the beginning of the end of the special relationship between the UK and the US?Besides, Gordon Brown's "Mini-Me", the Secretary of State for International Development Douglas Alexander, gave a controversial speech in Washington DC on Thursday. He was talking about forming "new alliances." He expressed his preference of a "rules-based international system" and of multilateralism over unilateralism. For some reason, many observers got the impression that he was not just talking about the fight against global poverty. His speech was interpreted as "coded criticism" of the Bush administration... Really? Isn't that an over-interpretation of the tea leaves? Meanwhile, the Sueddeutsche Zeitung predicts that French President Nicolas Sarkozy will fill the "vacuum" that Blair left in Washington. Yeah, right... More about all this in my post in the Atlantic Community. Vigilant, But Not AfraidPosted by Joerg Wolf in on Sunday, July 1. 2007
After three failed terror attacks in London and Glasgow, the Brits continue with the big public events this weekend, like the Gay Pride Parade, Wimbledon and the concert for Diana. The German paper Tagesspiegel praises the "stiff upper lip." The Nosemonkey in London has the right attitude and writes "Terrorists these days are rubbish."
Would Germans and Americans be as cool and continue with business as usual? Shortly after the London attacks of 7/7/2005, the We're not Afraid campaign started. Remember the funny pictures demonstrating fearlessness in solidarity with Britain and in defiance of the global terror movements? A good reminder from the "We're not Afraid" About us page:We refuse to respond to aggression and hatred in kind. Instead, we who are not afraid will continue to live our lives the best way we know how. We will work, we will play, we will laugh, we will live. We will not waste one moment, norRelated posts in the Atlantic Review: • Responding to "Al-Qaeda's Revival" • The State of Emergency Infrastructure • Increased Terror Threat: Germans in Pakistani Terror Camps Europe and Missile DefensePosted by Joerg Wolf in Transatlantic Relations on Tuesday, March 13. 2007
Peter Zeihan writes for the private intelligence agency Stratfor about "The New Logic for Ballistic Missile Defense:"
The Czech Republic and Poland are not the only European states to have changed their thinking about BMD either. A number of countries not only are responding warmly to U.S. overtures regarding facilities, but in some cases actually are initiating the siting requests. For central European states, the benefits of such deals are obvious. Most of the political elites in these states fear a future conflict with the Russians, and anything they can do to solidify a military arrangement with Washington is, to their thinking, a benefit in and of itself. But even in Western Europe, further removed from the Russian periphery, opposition to the United States' BMD programs seems to have relaxed considerably. The United Kingdom has specifically requested inclusion in the system (though Washington so far has declined), and the German government has called for the United States to address the issue of BMD in the context of NATO.The interesting analysis is for premium subscribers only, but Stratfor grants free access, if you visit their homepage via Google. Just google for the headline and then click on the Stratfor link. Ulrich Speck has written an excellent post in his Kosmoblog (in German) about Stratfor's analysis concerning Europe and missile defense. Related post in the Atlantic Review: Munich Security Conference: "Clear Messages Instead of Icy Silence" Day of German Unity and German-American DayPosted by Joerg Wolf in German Politics, Transatlantic Relations on Saturday, October 7. 2006 German papers regularly point out that British Prime Minister Thatcher and French President Mitterrand were not very enthusiastic at all about German unification in 1990. The US government, however, was very supportive. Former Chancellor Helmut Kohl and former President George Bush attended the Celebration of the Day of German Unity at the German Ambassador’s Residence in Washington, DC on October 3, 2006. You can read, listen and watch the speeches by both statesmen as well as Ambassador Scharioth and Minister President Milbradt on the German Embassy's homepage. Helmut Kohl said: During the historic times, it was truly a stroke of luck when the iron curtain slowly lifted that we Germans were able to rely on you, George Bush, who was president of the United States. When the opportunity for reunification became clearer and drew closer, and when others were still skeptical and hesitant, it was you and your government who encouraged and supported us and helped us on the road toward unification. Mr. President, you will always have a special place in the book of German history.George H.W. Bush: As this audience knows, both Margaret and Francois had reservations about a unified Germany. In fact, at one point Mitterrand jokingly told me, "I like Germany so much, I think there should be two of them!"Klaus Scharioth: We will never forget the essential role you played, as we won't forget the Marshall Plan, we won't forget the Berlin Airlift, or John F. Kennedy's 'Ich bin ein Berliner' or Ronald Reagan's 'Mister Gorbachev, tear down this wall, open up this gate.' Mr. President, thank you for what you and the American people have done for us and for being our guests of honor tonight.October 6 has been German-American Day for 20 years. In part of this year's proclamation, President George W. Bush encouraged "all Americans to celebrate our Nation's German heritage and the many ways German Americans have enriched and strengthened our country." Ambassador Scharioth said in his message of greetings: America will commemorate its 400th anniversary in 2007, when the first settlement was established along the banks of the James River. The first Germans who arrived in Jamestown in 1608 were among the earliest settlers. During the year, we will also look back on 400 years of transatlantic relations, mutual enrichment, and shared experiences across the Atlantic. Truly a time to celebrate! I would like to take this opportunity to thank all those German-Americans who work so hard to preserve our German heritage, culture, and language in the United States.The 60th anniversary of the Speech of Hope was celebrated on October 4, 2006 and Henry Kissinger represented the United States. (About Kissinger's influence on the current White House see the Atlantic Review's post on Bob Woodward's latest book.) I have not found an English source about that event. However, the Atlantic Review explained the background and importance of the speech by Secretary of State James F. Byrnes, who gave hope at a time of even greater uncertainty than 1990. The Times: Britain Handed Control to German and American IdeologuesPosted by Editors in International Economics, Transatlantic Relations, US Foreign Policy on Wednesday, September 20. 2006
Anatole Kaletsky writes in the The Times about Tony Blair's troubles and Gordon Brown's options. He describes what German monetary policy in the early 90s and U.S. foreign policy today have in common:
Mr Major's failure as a prime minister was down to a fatal policy mistake: his decision to keep Britain in the ERM [= European Exchange Rate Mechanism] regardless of cost. In doing this, the Tories effectively handed control of monetary policy to the Bundesbank, just as Mr Blair has subordinated foreign policy to the White House. (...)Considering the lasting impact of the ERM disaster on British attitudes towards Europe (on top of the already existing Eurosceptism/-phobia), what long-term impact will Blair's foreign policy have on British attitudes towards the United States? NATO's Difficulties to Get More Troops for AfghanistanPosted by Joerg Wolf in Transatlantic Relations on Saturday, September 16. 2006
"Some of America's closest Nato allies have abandoned Washington on the key battleground of the War on Terror, the bloody struggle against Islamic militants for control of southern Afghanistan," writes The Times (HT: Kathy):
Five years after the world stood "shoulder to shoulder" with America in the aftermath of 9/11, The Times has learnt that many of the countries that pledged support then have now ignored an urgent request for more help in fighting a resurgent Taleban and its al-Qaeda allies. Turkey, Germany, Spain and Italy have all effectively ruled out sending more troops.Captain's Quarters is one of many American blogs that makes a good point by saying "The same nations that scolded us over our supposedly unilateral approach now refuse to answer the phone when NATO calls on them to meet their pledges of troop support", but is wrong in suggesting that German troops should "redeploy" from the "quiet north" to assist NATO allies in the south. Sending additional troops is a fair demand, but redeployment makes no sense, since the north is far from being "quiet," and indicates a lack of appreciation for the hard and challenging work of the Bundeswehr in the north of Afghanistan. The impression of a "quiet north" is reinforced by the German defense ministry which refuses to tell German journalists about attacks against the Bundeswehr. Conservative bloggers have criticized that the media "emboldens the terrorists" and demoralizes the public by writing so much about the daily attacks in Iraq. Therefore, they should be glad that the German defense ministry keeps quiet about the attacks in the north rather than "helping the terrorists" and demoralizing the German public. Having said that, of course, the south is much more dangerous. Besides, the Bundeswehr mission does include assissting NATO allies in the south, when needed. The Bundeswehr has been deployed in Afghanistan since January 2002. In February 2003 the Bundeswehr mandate was increased to a maximum of 2,500 troops and in October 2003 increased again to a maximum of 2,900 troops. Most European countries have contributed far less troops to Afghanistan in recent years. Britain has only recently increased its troop strength of 1,200 to 5,400 to re-establish order in the South. Poland only promised a few days ago to finally increase its committment from currently 100 military police to 1,000 almost exclusively combat troops. Poland should be applauded for this huge contribution. Simon Tisdall writes in The Guardian about NATO's difficulties to get more troops and has this to say about Germany: "Germany, with about 2,800 troops in Afghanistan, was already involved in "sharp-end" operations in the north and had quietly contributed special forces to counter-insurgency missions further south, said Constanze Stelzenmüller, a security specialist at the German Marshall Fund in Berlin. "There is already a very robust engagement. And although there is public criticism, there is an understanding that we have to get the job done. What we are seeing is very usual. Nato can't quite bring itself to commit sufficient forces. But everyone knew that once Nato took over from the US, things would get a lot tougher. One reason is the drug trade. It is not a counter-insurgency on the scale of Iraq. It's more about money and local warlord power than ideology." Stabilising Afghanistan was "do-able", she said. And she predicted Germany would do more if necessary.The pressure to provide more help to NATO in the south of Afghanistan has certainly increased, but the Bundeswehr does not have many troops or money to spare. Austria, Belgium, Norway and others could do more, see related post: NATO's Increasing Involvement in Afghanistan. Blair and Bush - The End of An EraPosted by Sonja Bonin in Transatlantic Relations on Saturday, May 20. 2006
In its cover story "Axis of the Feeble", Britain's Economist analyzes the hard times that have befallen both George W. Bush and Tony Blair, who "have been improbable soul-mates, the silver-tongued British barrister and the drawling Republican from Texas." Indeed,
this prime minister is as close as any British Labour leader can come to being an American neo-conservative. […] Over the past year, however, the debacle in Iraq and problems at home have turned both leaders from soaring hawks into the lamest of ducks. […] Neither man is going right away. Mr Blair may hang on for another year […] Mr Bush will stay in office until January 2009. […] But an era is plainly drawing to an end. […] The self-confident and often self-righteous political partnership that shaped the West's military response to al-Qaeda and led the march into Afghanistan and Iraq is now faltering. What does this mean for the wider world?Nothing much, seems the author to suggest. On the one hand, "the president has found a new European friend in Angela Merkel", on the other hand, "many of Mr Bush's other foreign allies, such as Spain's José María Aznar and Italy's Silvio Berlusconi, have lost their jobs." What's most important, though, according to The Economist, Mr. Bush must ensure that America is not bundled out of Iraq before its elected government has a chance to stand on its own feet. He must hold the line against a nuclear Iran. He needs to push harder for an independent Palestine, continue the fight against al-Qaeda, resist Russia's bullying of its neighbours and help America come to terms with a rising China. If he is wise, he will work harder than before to enlist allies for these aims, even if America must sometimes still act alone. But it will be harder and lonelier without a confident Tony Blair at his side.
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