The Need for a New Transatlantic OstpolitikPosted by Joerg Wolf in Transatlantic Relations on Saturday, March 17. 2007
Ronald D. Asmus of the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS) calls for "a debate across the Atlantic about a new Eastern policy:"
The Russia we face today is a different one than what we hoped for. EU and NATO policy toward an enlarged Europe's new neighborhood needs to be rethought. And the United States and Europe need to get their act together on energy policy. With leadership changes coming up in Paris, London and Washington, the time is ripe to get out our laptops and debate the framework for a new policy.Given the different geographical position of Germany and the US, I am not sure if a preference of stability over transformation should be seen as "erring." An instable Russia could be worse than a stable, authoritarian Russia. Transformations can go into the wrong direction. Continue reading "The Need for a New Transatlantic Ostpolitik" A World Free of Nuclear Weapons?Posted by Joerg Wolf in Transatlantic Relations, US Foreign Policy on Wednesday, March 14. 2007
UPDATE: Britain's parliament backed Prime Minister Tony Blair's plans to renew the nuclear arsenal, reports Reuters: "Eighty-seven politicians from Blair's Labour Party voted against his plan to spend $42 to 55 billion on new nuclear-armed submarines to replace ones that go out of service in about 2024. It was the biggest rebellion against Blair since a 2003 vote backing war in Iraq and the largest rebellion on a domestic issue in Blair's decade in power. The revolt could have overturned Blair's 67-seat majority in the 646-member lower house of parliament, but backing from the opposition Conservatives helped Blair secure a 409-161 vote in favour of renewing the Trident nuclear weapons system."
The Bush administration moves ahead with plans toward building the first new nuclear weapons since the end of the Cold War. On March 2, the military and the Energy Department selected a design developed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The new generation of atomic warheads will replace the existing arsenal. An AP article published on MSNBC refers to advocates, who argue that the new nukes would "give military commanders greater assurance of reliability and could speed the reduction of the deployed number of nuclear warheads from 6,000 to fewer than 2,000 by 2012." The article also refers to the criticism that it would send "the wrong signal at a time when the United States is assailing attempts at nuclear weapons development in North Korea and Iran and striving to contain them." Should the goal of a nuclear weapons free world be pursued? The common myth is that only left-wing idealists and some governments without their own nukes call for a nuclear weapons free world, for example Germany. Think again after reading "A World Free of Nuclear Weapons" written by Sam Nunn, George Shultz, William Perry, and Henry Kissinger for The Wall Street Journal (8 January 2007) and republished by YaleGlobal. The former chairman of the Armed Services Committee and the three secretaries of state and of defense argue: The end of the Cold War made the doctrine of mutual Soviet-American deterrence obsolete. Deterrence continues to be a relevant consideration for many states with regard to threats from other states. But reliance on nuclear weapons for this purpose is becoming increasingly hazardous and decreasingly effective. Continue reading "A World Free of Nuclear Weapons?" Munich Security Conference: "Clear Messages Instead of Icy Silence"Posted by Joerg Wolf in Transatlantic Relations on Monday, February 12. 2007 For more than four decades, high-ranking representatives from very different countries have discussed military issues at the annual Munich Conference on Security Policy. No other forum brings together crucial policy makers like US Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Ali Larijani, the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran and its nuclear chief negotiator. Both gave their speeches within 90 minutes on February 11, 2007. Other participants include NATO Secretary General Scheffer, Pakistan's Minister of Foreign Affairs Kasuri, the EU's Solana, Israel's Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Livni, Australia's Minister for Foreign Affairs Downer and both Russia's President Putin and Ukraine's President Yuschenko. Putin's speech got the most press coverage for his accusations against the US and NATO: Iraq; provoking a nuclear arms race; anti-missile defense in Europe; breaking the pledge not to deploy any NATO troops east of Germany etc. NY Times writes about Putin's speech: The world, he said, is now unipolar: “One single center of power. One single center of force. One single center of decision making. This is the world of one master, one sovereign.” With the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, the American defense secretary, Robert M. Gates, and a Congressional delegation sitting stone-faced, Mr. Putin warned that the power amassed by any nation that assumes this ultimate global role “destroys it from within. “It has nothing in common with democracy, of course,” he added. “Today we are witnessing an almost uncontained hyper use of force in international relations — military force.”Robin Shepherd of the German Marshall Fund Blog asks "Where now for Vladimir Putin?" And Daniel Drezner writes about Gates' eloquent response to Putin: So that's how a competent Secretary of Defense acts. The other speeches are worth checking out as well. All speeches are available in English, including the original audio. The speeches by the German representatives, Chancellor Merkel, Minister of Defense Jung, Foreign Minister Steinmeier and SPD Chairman Beck are available in both English and German. You can also listen to the original audio of the discussions after the speeches. In addition to Robert Gates, the Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Robert Kimmit and the Senators McCain and Lieberman, many journalists, think tank representatives and former US officials, like William Cohen, represented the US at the conference. There were a few demonstrators outside (about 3000), but even more police (3500). Coming Anarchy got some pictures. The organizers praised the conference's frank speeches and serious discussions: In the conference hall and back rooms of the Hotel Bayerischer Hof, the 43rd has once again justified its motto "Peace Through Dialogue". The Russian President’s speech, in particular, emphasized the very importance of articulating different interests in an open and non-governmental debate. (...) The conference has again underlined its character as a venue for an unrestrained and clear exchange of ideas. As Kurt Beck, Minister President of Rhineland-Palatinate and leader of the German Social Democrats, said: "We have seen openness; an openness that allows us to really talk to each other about problems,to be honest about the interests we have, and, based on this, to develop a stable cooperation."The conference website provides summaries of the speeches and discussions in English and German. The informal setting and the frank speeches on defense issues by high-level representatives make this conference founded by the German publisher Ewald von Kleist in 1962 so valuable and unique. When Secretary Rumsfeld told the world at the Munich Conference in early February 2003 that the Bush administration was running out of patience with the UN inspections, then German Foreign Minister Fischer responded that the threat level produced by Iraq did not yet justify a war and that diplomatic means were not exhausted. "Why now?", Mr. Fischer wanted to know about Mr. Rumsfeld's war plans. It was at this conference, where Fischer told Rumsfeld in English his famous statement "I am not convinced!" Related: The Atlantic Review's post on last year's Munich Security Conference: Defense budget: US spends too much and Europe spends too little? (The photo in this post shows Iran's chief negotiator Ali Larijani and was taken by Sebastian Zwez for the Munich conference.) Transatlantic Foreign Policy Attitudes and Threat PerceptionsPosted by Joerg Wolf in Transatlantic Relations on Thursday, February 8. 2007
The graphic below is from Transatlantic Trends Survey of the German Marshall Fund of the United States. The perception of various threats does not seem to be very different in the United States and Europe. Certainly the differences are not so big to suggest that Europeans and Americans do not share many common interests anymore, as more and more bloggers claim these days.
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Transatlantic Trends: Key Findings (pdf) and Narrated Slide Presentation. The German weekly Die Zeit summarizes the findings as well. Related: Prof. Drezner of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University discusses the assumption of American exceptionalism in his book review "Mind the Gap" for the The National Interest. The first book is Andrew Kohut and Bruce Stokes' America Against the World (Amazon.com, Amazon.de), which "compares and contrasts the attitudes of Americans and other nationalities, relying primarily on the Pew Global Attitudes project. The second is Benjamin Page and Marshall Bouton's The Foreign Policy Disconnect (Amazon.com, Amazon.de), which compares and contrasts the attitudes of Americans and foreign policymaking elites." The book review in The National Interest is available for free, but Dr. Drezner also has an excerpt on his blog "Taking exception to American exceptionalism?": In detailing the patterns and gaps between the American public and others, these books nicely complement and occasionally contradict each other. Both The Foreign Policy Disconnect and America Against the World will add grist to the mill for those who profess faith in the wisdom of crowds and doubts about the judgment of foreign policy experts. After cogitating on both books, it would be difficult for the informed reader to believe that Americans hold irrational or flighty views about foreign policy. Most Americans, on most issues, articulate what George W. Bush characterized as a "humble" foreign policy during the 2000 campaign. They want a prudent foreign policy based on security against attacks and threats to domestic well-being—though American attitudes about multilateralism remain an open question. The gaps between American attitudes and the rest of the world are overstated; the gaps between Americans and their policymakers might be understated. The biggest question—which neither of these books answers satisfactorily—is to what extent these views, and gaps between views, matter.Emphasis in bold added, because I think this is important for the frequent debates about transatlantic disagreements. Related: Prof. Drezner December 2006 article in the Washington Post: "The Grandest Strategy Of Them All." Trans-Atlantic Cooperation: Are Europeans Unwilling to Share the Burden?Posted by Joerg Wolf in Transatlantic Relations on Wednesday, December 20. 2006
Ivo Daalder and James Goldgeier are disappointed by European contributions to the transatlantic alliance and want to globalize NATO to enhance burden sharing with other democracies. In their Financial Times op-ed "US and Europe must learn about alliances", the senior fellow at Brookings and the fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations point out:
In recent months George W. Bush has rediscovered the virtues of having allies and working within alliances. In every big challenge confronting the US – from Iraq to Afghanistan, from Iran to North Korea – he has sought to enlist the help of America’s traditional allies. But in many cases the very allies who bitterly complained about the US president’s unilateralism only a short time ago have been reluctant to do their part in helping multilateralism succeed.Personal opinion: The US chose multilateralism too late (and still does not embrace it fully in regard to the Iranian issue). If the US had accepted NATO's offer to help in Afghanistan right after 9/11, Europeans would be more committed to Afghanistan now. Re Iran: I believe the US has not been as supportive of the European negotiations as Daalder and Goldgeier claim. Besides, not the Europeans, but China and Russia are the obstacle for "real sanctions" on Iran. Sanctions only have a chance to work, if most countries support them. Still, Daalder and Goldgeier make many good points in their criticism of Europe, but they also exaggerate a bit, which is fine since it is an op-ed, which is available in their blog America Abroad. What are your thoughts about the Bush administrations "rediscovery" of multilateralism and the European response? Related posts in the Atlantic Review: • Germany and the United States Failed to Train Afghanistan's Police, • Round-up of Opinions Before the NATO summit • Should Germany Send Troops to Southern Afghanistan? and • Afghanistan Intervention "on the cheap" Endnote: Daniel Fried, assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, discusses trans-Atlantic cooperation on Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq and previews U.S.-Europe Relations for 2007. See article at the State Department. Charles Kupchan about "The Next Era in Transatlantic Relations"Posted by Editors in Transatlantic Relations on Friday, December 15. 2006
Charles A. Kupchan, Director of Europe Studies at the Council of Foreign Relations writes in the National Interest (Sept./Oct. 2006) about the new era in transatlantic relations after 9/11. Full article available for free at the Council of Foreign Relations. First paragraph:
The Atlantic order is in the midst of a fundamental transition. The transatlantic discord that has emerged since the late 1990s marks a historical breakpoint, not a temporary aberration. The foundational principles of the Atlantic security order that emerged after World War II have been compromised. American and European interests have diverged, institutionalized cooperation can no longer be taken for granted, and a shared Western identity has attenuated. We are at the dawn of a new era in the Atlantic relationship. Rather than trying to recreate the past, the Atlantic democracies should move forward by acknowledging that the tight-knit alliance of the Cold War years is gone for good. Instead, they should accept that the character of the Atlantic order is undergoing a profound transformation, seek to understand the attributes of the emerging order, and figure out how to make the most of its cooperative potential. Various Forms of Transatlantic CooperationPosted by Editors in Transatlantic Relations on Friday, December 8. 2006
• The American Institute of Contemporary German Studies published the essay "The New Dynamic of German-American Union Interaction in the Evolving Transatlantic Civil Society" by Thomas Greven, professor at Freie Universitaet Berlin: "International relations between employee unions have often been characterized by competition and distrust. The recent decline of union influence has led to a higher level of interaction, mostly out of self preservation."
• State Department: Kurt Volker, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, spoke about "The Future of Europe: The Ties that Bind and Divide" at the National Conference of Editorial Writers on November 13, 2006: "Reports of the Death of Transatlantic Relations are Greatly Exaggerated" • ABC News Blog: "1245 Secret CIA Flights Revealed by European Parliament" Opinions About the NATO Summit in Riga and the Future of the AlliancePosted by Joerg Wolf in Transatlantic Relations on Tuesday, November 28. 2006 The leaders of 26 NATO member countries meet in the Latvian capital Riga from 28-29 November to "chart the way ahead for the Alliance" operations, transformation and partnerships." Reuters has learned that "a U.S. plan to forge a network of partnerships around NATO from Scandinavia to Asia will get the thumbs-down from members wary of the alliance going global, diplomats said on Friday." See the Atlantic Review's post about Ivo Daalder's concept of a global NATO. Here's a round-up of opinions on the eve of the summit: Continue reading "Opinions About the NATO Summit in Riga and the Future of the Alliance" A European Army with a Single Command?Posted by Joerg Wolf in Transatlantic Relations on Monday, November 20. 2006 "Kurt Beck, leader of the Social Democrats, called Monday [November 6th] for a European army with a single command, the first time a German political party has proposed such a structure. If adopted, it could lead to the European Union pursuing a security and defense policy independent of NATO." writes Judy Dempsey in the International Herald Tribune (HT: EU Digest) and adds: Beck told delegates during a special meeting in Berlin that such defense ambitions for the EU would not rupture the trans-Atlantic relationship because, without the United States, "we cannot solve global problems." However, instead of "following" or "adhering" to the United States, he said, the Europeans should establish a partnership "based on quality. This is the particular challenge for Europe."Ms. Dempsey writes about a security expert at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute: An EU move toward establishing its own force, Dunay said, could lead to more efficient defense spending at a juncture when countries are reluctant to increase military budgets while being asked by the United Nations in particular to join peacekeeping missions.The Atlantic Review wrote about EU plans to increase joint defense spending. Beck's suggestion was already rejected by Poland, and Ms. Dempsey points out that this issue was considered a "direct threat to the alliance and the trans-Atlantic relationship" three years ago. I am not aware of any debate in Germany after Kurt Beck's comments. The leading role for NATO in Germany's New Security and Defense Policy Review has not been contested by any politician as far as I can tell. • The perception that a common EU defence policy is unworkable is based on myths that undermine pragmatic integration of defence policies, argues Constanze Stelzenmueller of the German Marshall Fund of the United States. Continue reading "A European Army with a Single Command?" Two American Experts Comment on the European Reactions to the U.S. ElectionsPosted by Joerg Wolf in Transatlantic Relations on Thursday, November 16. 2006
The Atlantic Review has already written about German Reactions to the Midterm Elections. Americans are now commenting about the European reactions to the elections: "Aspen Institute Berlin Director Jeffrey Gedmin has an interesting and useful piece, 'Even Happier than the Democrats,' in the Weekly Standard," writes Steve Clemons, director of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation and also adds his own thoughts in his Washington Note.
Gedmin: When European commentators say they are still yearning for an end to American unilateralism, moral crusades, and the influence of "fundamentalist evangelicals," what they really mean is that they are longing for a United States just like secular, post-national, consensus-seeking, Social Democratic Europe. But, of course, even with Democrats controlling the House and the Senate, it ain't gonna happen.Clemons agrees to some degree, but adds: Europe yearns for a pragmatic, problem-fixing America, engaged in the world's real problems and building international collaborations to meet these challenges. America has departed this space on ideological quests and left a giant void in global affairs that the Europeans have had to partially fill.Related post in the Atlantic Review: Will US Foreign Policy Change if the Democrats Win the Midterm Elections? ENDNOTE: There was quite a stir in the blogosphere about the news that former Abu Ghraib prisoners, supported by an American NGO, seek prosecution of Secretary Rumsfeld in Germany. Several popular American bloggers misunderstood the Time Magazine article and incorrectly blamed the German government and vented their anger. Some even made Nazi references, as reported in a previous post. U.S. law professor Andrew Hammel writes in his blog that there have been 53 petitions to invoke Germany's "universal jurisdiction" law for war crimes (adopted in 2002), but "none has been acted on, according to this week's Die Zeit, so there's pretty much zero chance of Rumsfeld going to prison in Germany." Besides, yesterday, an association of peace groups filed a lawsuit against Chancellor Merkel and Defense Minister Jung for "preparing an offensive war." They claim that the White Paper on German Security Policy violates Germany's constitution, reports Die Welt (in German). Thus, the significance of the lawsuit against Rumsfeld should not be exaggerated. German President Koehler Calls for more European Help to Stabilise IraqPosted by Editors in Transatlantic Relations on Sunday, November 12. 2006 In an interview with Frankfurter Rundschau on November 11, 2006, Federal President Horst Koehler said: The war has led to a disaster, but we can't sit back and say it's a problem for the Americans. That would be dumb, short-sighted and arrogant. (...) We cannot allow the region to slide into chaos. We have a direct, existential interest in preventing this. (...) Ducking away and just watching is a worse alternative.Reuters has made the above translation and adds "Germany has helped train Iraqi security personnel outside of the country and provided humanitarian aid in recent years." and points out "Koehler has limited powers in the largely ceremonial post of president, but he can influence the national debate and has not shied away from controversial topics." Original quotes from the Frankfurter Rundschau interview: Der Krieg hat zu einem Desaster gefuehrt. Aber wir können uns nicht zuruecklehnen und sagen: Das ist das Problem der Amerikaner. Das waere dumm, kurzsichtig und ueberheblich. (...)Reuters does not mention the last four sentences, which roughly translate as: 'Europeans have made excuses for not sharing the burden. (...) The coalition of the willing is over. Now we need a coalition of the realists/reasonable/insightful who understand the need for shared responsibility for global stability.' [A better translation would be appreciated.] Koehler also criticizes European and American double standards in their Africa policies and a lack of a concept to tackle the illegal drugs problem in Afghanistan: "Aber ohne einen Plan zur Loesung des Problems der illegalen Drogenwirtschaft wird es dort keinen Frieden geben. Darum hat man sich viel zu wenig gekuemmert, dafuer gab es kein Konzept. Das Militaerische und rein Politische stand im Vordergrund." Thomas Friedman: Energy Cooperation Will Unite the WestPosted by Joerg Wolf in German Politics, International Economics, Transatlantic Relations on Tuesday, November 7. 2006
"Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, the Western allies have been asking: What will replace the threat of communism as the cement that holds together the Atlantic alliance? Some have argued terrorism, but I don't think so. I think my German friends have the best idea: the issue that will and should unite the West is energy and all its challenges." writes Thomas Friedman in his column "Allies Dressed in Green" in the NY Times (subscribers only) (HT: Elmer):
After all, nothing is a bigger threat today to the Western way of life and quality of life than the combination of climate change, pollution, species loss, and Islamist radicalism and petro-authoritarianism --all fueled by our energy addictions. And no solution is possible to these problems without concerted government actions to reduce emissions, to inspire green innovation and to shift from oil to renewable power. Therefore, green is not just the new red, white and blue — the next great American national security project -- it should also be the color, focus and cement of the Atlantic alliance in the 21st century. As a German official remarked to me, "The whole issue has the potential of becoming a big trans-Atlantic project at a time when we have no other good big project that [embodies] a vision." (...) Germany's foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, recently gave a major address on how "energy security will strongly influence the global security agenda in the 21st century."The biggest obstacles he sees are European opposition to genetically modified crops and nuclear energy and President Bush's lack of environmentalism: "One reason President Bush has failed to become the leader of the West is because he has failed to lead on green, which has become so important to all our allies." Ah, apparently the phrase "leader of the West" is still in use. On "leadership" see Atlantic Review post about "Germany's Comeback" and Leadership. Gabor Steingart makes another suggestion to keep the Euro-American alliance vital: A transatlantic free-trade zone could be like a "NATO for the World Economy."
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