Posted by Joerg Wolf in
US Foreign Policy on Tuesday, July 24. 2007
Peter W Rodman and William Shawcross argue in a NYT op-ed that the consequences of defeat in Iraq would be as disastrous for the region and for the United States as the 1975 Communist victory in Vietnam was for Cambodia and Vietnam.
Defeat would embolden extremists and destabilize moderate governments in the Arab world. "Millions of Iraqis see the United States as their only hope." Besides, "US conduct in Iraq is crucial test of American credibility."
Marc Schulman reviews this op-ed in his blog AMERICAN FUTURE and adds:
Our defeat in Vietnam and the subsequent isolationist sentiment made it easier for the Soviets to decide to take the risk [to invade Afghanistan]. Without engaging in historical determinism, it’s fair to say that the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan set in motion a chain of events that culminated in 9/11. In the minds of bin Laden and his compatriots, the jihadists had defeated one of the world’s two superpowers and were responsible for its collapse. (...)
Bush has been roundly and soundly criticized for ignoring and misjudging the consequences of invading Iraq. That being the case, isn’t it equally important to assess — not sweep under the rug — the consequences of defeat in Iraq?
PERSONAL COMMENT: The real question is: Can the US still win in Iraq? In other words: Can the US avoid all the above mentioned negative consequences, if the US stays in Iraq with current number of US troops for three or five more years?
Those in favor of immediate withdrawal do not like a defeat either, but they think that the US cannot win in Iraq, i.e. the US can only decide between a defeat/withdrawal now or defeat/withdrawal in two, three, or five years. So do you want the above mentioned negative consequences now or in two, three, or five years?
Perhaps those in favor of staying in Iraq could explain how many more years they want to give this Iraq project and what number of coalition forces casualties is acceptable to them.
It is very much in Europe's interest that the US succeeds in Iraq, because Europe would suffer from a further destabilization of the region. Thus, it is in my interest to call upon the United States to stay at least ten more years in Iraq. If the US succeeds, that is great for Europe. If the US fails and all hell breaks lose after the US withdrawal in ten years, then we Europeans at least got ten more years. Thus I should be against a US withdrawal.
I am, however, not very optimistic that the US will succeed within ten years. I tend to believe that the US cannot fix Iraq. Thus, I am wondering if it can still be justified to send young American and British men and women into this war, if I tend to think that the US will lose. As a German, who benefited so much from the US military, I do not have the right to call upon the Americans to risk their lives in an unwinnable war.
This line of thought might also be one of the reasons, why German politicans do not say whether the US should stay or withdraw from Iraq. What do you think?
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