Posted by Joerg Wolf in
Transatlantic Relations on Tuesday, November 28. 2006
The leaders of 26 NATO member countries meet in the Latvian capital Riga from 28-29 November to "chart the way ahead for the Alliance" operations, transformation and partnerships."
Reuters has learned that "a U.S. plan to forge a network of partnerships around NATO from Scandinavia to Asia will get the thumbs-down from members wary of the alliance going global, diplomats said on Friday." See the Atlantic Review's post about Ivo Daalder's concept of a global NATO.
Here's a round-up of opinions on the eve of the summit:
• In Time for Backbone in the Alliance, Nile Gardiner gives advice for the Bush administration. For some reason the Heritage Foundation considers it fit to publish his article, although it includes phrases (like "moral cowardice" to describe European countries) that are usually only seen on right-wing blogs : European Defense Identity: Along with widespread apathy, moral cowardice, and European countries' general unwillingness to fight, the greatest threat to the future of NATO is posed by the drive for further political and defense integration in the European Union. The United States must firmly oppose moves in Europe to establish a European defense identity separate from, and in competition with, NATO.
• British Conservative "Shadow Defence Minister," Dr. Liam Fox. told Time Magazine that NATO's biggest problem is that the troops in Afghanistan do notoperate as a unified force. 37 countries have troops in Afghanistan but with more than 70 operating caveats. (HT: Joe, Shawn)
• The German Marshall Fund has commissioned five papers from leading thinkers on both sides of the Atlantic on the future challenges facing NATO. These original policy papers frame the critical issues both on and off the Summit agenda. Ronald D. Asmus and Richard C. Holbrooke wrote about Re-reinventing NATO, which provides an ambitious American view on the Alliance's future from two individuals deeply involved in NATO reform in the 1990s. Christoph Bertram, the former director of Germany's leading thinking tank SWP, writes about NATO's Only Future: the West Abroad.
• Johns Hopkins professor Dan Hamilton just published the op-ed "NATO summit I: In area, or in trouble": If NATO is visible in expeditionary missions but invisible when it comes to protecting our societies, support for the alliance will wane. Its role will be marginalized and our security diminished. NATO's new mantra must be "in area or in trouble." Unfortunately, the topic is not even on the Riga agenda.
• The International Herald Tribune has learned that Divisions between "Old" and "New" Europe are fading as NATO faces new challenges: Support for joint military operations with the United States no longer seems unconditional in Central and Eastern European countries. Slovakia, for example, deployed more than 100 non-combat troops in Iraq with an open mandate under a reformist, pro-U.S. government in 2003, only for the current populist Prime Minister Robert Fico to announce a pullout last summer, saying "we don't belong there." Hungary pulled out its 300 non-combat troops from Iraq in 2004, and Bulgaria withdrew a 450-member infantry battalion from the Mideast country in 2005, though it redeployed 120 non-combat soldiers in March.
Moreover, there is no question that the countries of 'old Europe' remain the continent's great powers. While the commitment of the new members is appreciated by the United States, what counts most in serious military conflicts such as the one in Afghanistan is the experience of NATO's established members. "Willingness to help is one thing, and ability is another."
• Spiegel International writes about German Troops in Afghanistan: "One couldn't help but feel like a lousy comrade"
• Time Magazine discusses many questions regarding Afghanistan and quotes Christoph Bertram, the "dean of German security experts," as saying that the NATO summit in Riga will be "like a Christmas service for agnostics, who for most of the year do not pray together or sing from the same hymnbook." Time writes about the pressure on Germany:
Germany, the third biggest troop contributor to ISAF, has been the focus of the caveat debate because its 2,900 troops are restricted to the more secure regions of Kabul and the north. Karsten Voigt, coordinator for U.S.-German relations in the Foreign Ministry, says he is under constant pressure to do more in Afghanistan: in Washington last month, he says, one interlocutor told him that "Germans have to learn how to kill."
Berlin will not budge, though, since neither the government nor the public has the stomach for putting German soldiers in harm's way. Mindful of that political reality, Bush isn't likely to push for a sea change. Nevertheless, it was only seven years ago, in Kosovo, that Germany first committed combat troops to a NATO mission at all. Over time, if Germany moves into a foreign-policy role consonant with its economic weight, a more self-assured stance might become politically acceptable.
Re the crucial question "Is NATO fighting the right way in Afghanistan?":
Many are beginning to wonder. NATO says its two-week offense in September, Operation Medusa, drove insurgents out of the Taliban strongholds of Panjwai and Zhari districts in Kandahar province. Daan Everts, NATO's senior civilian representative in Afghanistan, calls it a "critical turning point." But that operation also killed at least a dozen civilians. "If NATO cannot bring our people security and a peaceful life, then it has failed," says Noorolhaq Olomi, an M.P. from Kandahar and chairman of the parliament's defense committee. "There is no reconstruction, just destruction." Despite efforts to help reconstruction work around the country, a military force like NATO doesn't have the resources or expertise to make Afghanistan's huge deficits -- poverty, pervasive corruption, poor education, a thriving drug trade -- quickly disappear.
The German media has written a lot about NATO's pressure on Germany and the charges about a lack of solidarity. It is my impression that by and large the German press takes these charges seriously and admits that NATO partners are right to criticize the caveats and an unfair burden-sharing in terms of fighting and casualties.
Though, moving German troops from the North to the South is not seen as the solution to NATO's problems in the South. There is also criticism of the counter-insurgency operations in the South. I think Germans will not support sending troops to South Afghanistan, especially if nobody convinces them that NATO's existing strategy for the South can indeed stabilize the country rather than continue to alienate the Afghans.
Chancellor Merkel and Defense Minister Jung are expected to focus their speeches at the NATO summit on proposing a new connected security strategy with more reconstruction efforts. (More later)
Also see the Atlantic Review's posts about two Germans arguing in favor and against sending German troops to Southern Afghanistan and about having pursued the Afghanistan Intervention on the Cheap.
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