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Doubts about Death Numbers in Iraq, but not in DarfurPosted by Joerg Wolf in US Foreign Policy on Saturday, October 14. 2006
Between 392,979 and 942,636 more people have died in Iraq since coalition forces arrived in March 2003 than would have died if the invasion had not occurred, is the conclusion of a survey by Iraqi physicians and overseen by epidemiologists at the Johns Hopkins University's Bloomberg School of Public Health.
The findings were published by the British medical journal The Lancet. Of course, the survey is one of the hottest topics in the blogosphere. For the left it is easy to use the survey as proof of the alleged disaster of the Iraq war. And for the right it is easy to criticize the alleged bias of the researchers and the uncertainty of the estimate. The Washington Post writes about the "mixed reviews." Richard Horton, the editor of The Lancet, writes a long defense of the survey in The Guardian, including this comparison with Darfur: This method is now tried and tested. It has been the basis for mortality estimates in war zones such as Darfur and the Congo. Interestingly, when we report figures from these countries politicians do not challenge them. They frown, nod their heads and agree that the situation is grave and intolerable. The international community must act, they say. When it comes to Iraq the story is different.In the end, the exact number of victims is not so important to analyse the very different situations in Darfur and in Iraq. See Marc Cooper's comment. UPDATE: While the exact number of Iraqi casualties might not be crucial for analysing the situation, the high number (whatever estimate you use) should be of concern. The US Congress has created an Iraqi War Victims Fund, because thanks to Marla Ruzicka's lobby work the lawmakers have realized that a compassionate response to civilians accidentally injured or killed due to U.S. military action is important for gaining trust, winning hearts and minds and stabilizing Iraq. The Atlantic Review recommended the new book about Marla Ruzicka. The Congressional Research Service has published the report "Iraqi Civilian, Police, and Security Forces Casualties Estimate" (pdf), which was updated on September 14, 2006. (HT: Shaun) The State Department links to that report.
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Fuchur
- #1 - 2006-10-13 15:59 - (Reply)
Marc Cooper raises a good question: Why do we have to rely upon studies like this one, made under such imperfect conditions? Why are there no official numbers from the US government?
Don
- #2 - 2006-10-13 18:16 - (Reply)
Possibly because it's - impossible. Fuchur?
Fuchur
- #3 - 2006-10-13 20:05 - (Reply)
I´ve heard people compare Iraq to Vietnam - but comparing it to WWII is a little bit exaggerated, isn´t it? ;-)
Don
- #3.1 - 2006-10-13 21:05 - (Reply)
"how can you even hope to get casualty estimates for Darfur?"
Fuchur
- #4 - 2006-10-13 20:12 - (Reply)
Here´s something I wonder about: Mark Cooper writes "...the U.S. government has made a point of not compiling Iraqi deaths."
JW-Atlantic Review
- #4.1 - 2006-10-13 20:28 - (Reply)
I don't know, but I guess it's because of Vietnam. QUOTE Washington Post: The Vietnam experience led U.S. commanders to shun issuing enemy death tallies in later conflicts, through the initial stages of the Iraq war. "We don't do body counts on other people," Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said in November 2003, when asked on "Fox News Sunday" whether the number of enemy dead exceeded the U.S. toll. That policy appeared to shift with the assault on the insurgent stronghold of Fallujah in November, an operation considered crucial at the time to denying safe havens to enemy fighters. U.S. military officials reported 1,200 to 1,600 enemy fighters killed, although reporters on the scene noted far fewer corpses were found by Marines after the fighting. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/23/AR2005102301273.html
JW-Atlantic Review
- #4.2 - 2006-10-13 20:42 - (Reply)
@ Fuchur QUOTE Independent, June 2004: Ruzicka wrote a week before her death on Saturday and published yesterday, the 28-year-old revealed that a Brigadier General told her it was "standard operating procedure" for US troops to file a report when they shoot a non-combatant. She obtained figures for the number of civilians killed in Baghdad between 28 February and 5 April, and discovered that 29 had been killed in firefights involving US forces and insurgents. This was four times the number of Iraqi police killed. "These statistics demonstrate that the US military can and does track civilian casualties," she wrote. "Troops on the ground keep these records because they recognise they have a responsibility to review each action taken and that it is in their interest to minimise mistakes, especially since winning the hearts and minds of Iraqis is a key component of their strategy." Sam Zia-Zarifi, deputy director of the Asia division of Human Rights Watch, the group for which Ms Ruzicka wrote the report, said her discovery "was very important because it allows the victims to start demanding compensation". He added: "At a policy level they have never admitted they keep these figures." http://www.iraqbodycount.org/coverage/ind_20apr2005.php More background is probably to be found in the just published book about Marla Ruzicka, wich the Atlantic Review recommended: http://atlanticreview.org/archives/410-Sweet-Relief-A-New-Book-about-Humanitarian-Activist-Marla-Ruzicka.html but I have not read it yet. The US Congress has created a fund to financially compensate the families. If anybody wants to know why that is in the US interest, then read here: http://atlanticreview.org/archives/243-Marla-Ruzicka,-civilian-victims-and-reconciliation.html You, Fuchur (and others), probably saw that already, but for some of our new readers, I just wanted to point it out again.
David
- #5 - 2006-10-13 20:54 - (Reply)
The study only confirms what (WWII bombardier)historian Howard Zinn has said about modern warfare:
JW-Atlantic Review
- #6 - 2006-10-13 21:09 - (Reply)
I have written an update and linked to a Congressional Research Service report titled "Iraqi Civilian, Police, and Security Forces Casualties Estimate"
Don
- #7 - 2006-10-13 22:39 - (Reply)
The Lancet does seem to get it's money's worth from relatively few actual counted deaths.
JW-Atlantic Review
- #7.1 - 2006-10-14 22:39 - (Reply)
"relatively few actual counted deaths." QUOTE The Guardian: The same team from Johns Hopkins University worked with Iraqi doctors to visit over 1,800 homes in Iraq, selected randomly to make sure that no bias could creep in to their calculations. They identified more than 12,000 family members and tracked those who had died over an interval that spanned both pre- and post-invasion periods. The Iraqi interviewers spoke fluent English as well as Arabic, and they were well trained to collect the information they were seeking. They asked permission from every family to use the data they wanted. And they chased down death certificates in over four out of five cases to make sure that they had a double check on the numbers and causes of death given to them by family members. Having said that, I do find the number surprising and I can think of a few reasons for errors in the estimate. Though as I wrote in the update, the exact number is not so important. Also I agree with Marc Cooper (see link in post) who wrote: QUOTE Marc Cooper: If this report is anywhere remotely accurate it ought to be a sobering warning of what we have wrought in Iraq-- a slaughter on the scale or even greater than that unleashed by Saddam Hussein. Even if it overstates the death toll by double, it would still be five times higher than what most estimates have assumed to date. I doubt, as a nation, that we will ever come to terms with such horrific numbers. We very properly memorialize the 52,000 American deaths in Vietnam. But how often do we stop to ponder that the same war cost the Vietnamese two, or is it three, million? The new study will be hotly and fiercely debated in the days to come but the arguments themselves will mean little to nothing. Like participants in a massive Rorschach test each one of us will swear seeing in these statistics only what we wish. You write and quote Tim Blair: "* It is a larger number than were killed in Germany during five years (and 955,044 tons) of WWII bombing." Are you sure? Tim Blair's only source for that is a comment someone made on his blog. Wikipedia says Germany had 5,5 mio military deaths and 1,8 mio civilian deaths, excluding the Holocaust. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties#Casualties_by_country Where were those civilians killed, if not in Germany. So, the number of civilian deaths in Germany is three times as high as the number of Iraqis, if Wikipedia and the Johns Hopkins study are correct. Okay, I should not rely on Wikipedia. The Air Force Magazine quotes on page 54 the Encyclopedia Britannica by stating that Germany had 3,5 military deaths and 780,000 civilian deaths. http://www.afa.org/magazine/June2003/0603casualties.pdf Poland, the UdSSR, Yugoslavia and China had many more. And smaller countries suffered even more. And of course, Germany started it all. I can't remember or grasp big numbers anyway. Intellectually I understand the difference between for example 200,000 and 300,000 but emotionally I can't comprehend the difference. I don't feel any different, whether someone tells me that in conflict xyz there have been 200,000 casualties or there have been 300,000 casualties. Do you know what I mean?
Don
- #8 - 2006-10-15 01:07 - (Reply)
"Where were those civilians killed, if not in Germany."
Detlef
- #8.1 - 2006-10-20 22:04 - (Reply)
But bombing probably didn't kill that many. London lost 20,000 killed due to the Blitz - that's all.
Don
- #9 - 2006-10-15 01:43 - (Reply)
An Iraqi blogger responds: http://iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/2006/10/responding-to-lancet-lies.html
JW-Atlantic Review
- #9.1 - 2006-10-15 02:46 - (Reply)
What's great about that rant?
Don
- #9.1.1 - 2006-10-15 15:12 - (Reply)
Who is comparing ME to North Korea? That kind of thing usually comes out of the Kos crows - or europeans, Joerg.
JW-Atlantic Review
- #9.1.1.1 - 2006-10-15 15:19 - (Reply)
The guy you quoted did that in his silly criticism of the survey.
Don
- #10 - 2006-10-15 19:33 - (Reply)
Sorry Joerg,
David
- #10.1 - 2006-10-16 03:23 - (Reply)
Hey Don, the only Nazi comparisons I hear are from Bush, describing the "Islamofascists". The implication is that those of us who oppose his failed policy (now 66% of all Americans) are Nazi sympathizers.
Bill
- #11 - 2006-10-17 17:27 - (Reply)
Skipped everybody else's comments to leave this note for Jörg:
Fuchur
- #11.1 - 2006-10-18 11:34 - (Reply)
"38,000 deaths a month ... and I'm supposed to be disturbed about death rates in Iraq!?"
Bill
- #12 - 2006-10-18 14:11 - (Reply)
Reuters AlertNet has an article by Francesco Checchi on the Iraq Mortality Study published by The Lancet medical journal. See the Oct 12th article "Doubts about Iraq Death Toll" at this URL:
Don
- #13 - 2006-10-18 16:30 - (Reply)
Stephen Moore raises some serious statistical points about the Johns Hopkins survey in the Wall Street Journal Add Comment
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While "the Bush administration has complained about the tenor of media coverage of the war in Iraq ever since the April 2003 looting that followed the fall of Baghdad," negative stories in the U.S. media have only "outweighed positive ones
Tracked: Oct 30, 17:28