Posted by Joerg Wolf in
Transatlantic Relations on Saturday, July 1. 2006
Having read the coverage of the EU-US summit in several U.S. and German papers, I got the impression that the German papers focus on the lack of concrete results, while pointing out that President Bush wants to close Gitmo, is more supportive of EU policies on Israel/Palestine, Iran, and on the environment. The U.S. papers, however, focused on the dialogue between President Bush and the European press.
According to the Voice of America, one journalist asked President Bush the inaccurate question why Europeans perceive America to be the greatest threat to global stability. And Raimund Loew, of Austrian Radio and TV, added: "So my question to you is, why do you think you have failed so badly to convince Europeans to win their hearts and minds?" President Bush responded:
Look, people didn't agree with my decision on Iraq. And I understand that. For Europe, September the 11th was a moment; for us it was a change of thinking.
I see an irony here, but it is just my personal analysis: I believe President Bush not only explained why he is so unpopular in Europe, but he also reinforced his unpopularity. President Bush did not seize this chance to win hearts and minds in Europe, but actually lost a few more hearts and minds because of the way he responded.
Please, let me explain why and also elaborate on the poll and the press coverage of the summit and the German troops in Afghanistan:
1. President Bush's response gives the impression that all Europeans were against the Iraq war. He fails to acknowledge that Britain, Italy, Spain, and other European countries did send troops to Iraq.
2. As so often, President Bush puts only six words between "Iraq" and "September the 11th," although Iraq had nothing to do with September 11. Sometimes that makes sense, but most Europeans don't like the Bush administration's repeated Iraq-9/11 references and believe that those references explain why "a large majority of Bush supporters believes that Iraq was providing substantial support to al Qaeda and that clear evidence of this support has been found." (This 2004 poll is discussed here.) Therefore President Bush isn't winning, but losing hearts and minds in Europe with short talking point references to Iraq-9/11.
Yes, 9/11 required a reassesment of the threat of WMD and the necessity to support democratization. Indeed the terrorist attacks caused a "change of thinking" not only for Americans (as the president claims), but also for Europeans.
Besides, many Americans, who changed their thinking after 9/11, did not agree with the decision to attack Iraq and start democratization of the Middle East with tanks in Iraq, because 9/11 was caused by a multi-national, but mainly Saudi religious fundamentalist terrorist group rather than secular Iraq. Why not bring democracy to another Arab country first? Democratization of Egypt would have sent shockwaves throughout the Arab world.
3. This is the second time within weeks that President Bush described 9/11 as just a moment for Europeans. In May he told German TV that for non-Americans September 11th "was just a moment in passing", which I consider unfair, a bit offensive and totally inaccurate. Just two of the many reasons:
a) According to the State Department: "An estimated 2,830 people died or are missing in the aftermath of the attack on the World Trade Center. (...) One in six — 494 — are reportedly either foreigners or Americans with dual citizenship, hailing from more than 90 countries. "
b) Because of September 11, thousands of German soldiers have risked their lives in Afghanistan every single day for the past four years. Deutsche Welle reports that on Tuesday:
For the first time, a suicide bomber has targeted German Bundeswehr troops in northern Afghanistan. No soldiers were killed in the attack, although two civilians were killed, in addition to the bomber, and eight injured. (...) The troops were on patrol in a Dingo armored vehicle when an explosive device was detonated. (…) The Bundeswehr took over the regional command of the NATO ISAF peacekeeping force in northern Afghanistan on June 1 and currently there are just under 2,800 Germany soldiers on the force. Thus far, 18 have been killed on the ISAF mission.
Perhaps President Bush could tell the relatives of those 18 German soldiers and the relatives of other European soldiers killed in Afghanistan that September 11 was just "a moment" for Europeans.
Moreover, we need to take a closer look at the poll that is quoted in the US and European media as saying that Europeans consider the US the greatest threat. The respected Pew Global Attitudes Project summarizes its poll and created the table:
Majorities in 10 of 14 foreign countries surveyed say that the war in Iraq has made the world a more dangerous place. In Great Britain, America's most important ally in Iraq, 60% say the war has made the world more dangerous, while just half that number (30%) feel it has made the world safer. Moreover, even as concerns about Iran have increased, somewhat more Britons believe that the U.S. military presence in Iraq represents a great danger to stability in the Middle East and world peace than say that about the current government in Iran (by 41%-34%). In Spain, fully 56% say the U.S. military presence in Iraq is a great danger to the stability of the Middle East and world peace; just 38% regard the current government in Iran in the same way. Among America's traditional allies, Germany is the only country where more people say Iran is a great danger than offer the same view of the U.S. military presence in Iraq (by 51%-40%). "
Back to the EU-US Summit in Vienna:
Mike Allen writes for Time Magazine: "In Europe, Bush avoids looking defensive and wins a ringing endorsement by at least one foreign leader"
Mark Silva wrote good elaborate piece for the Chicago Tribune:
President Bush, eager to counter the perceived threats of Iran and North Korea, instead found himself Wednesday passionately defending the United States against suggestions that the U.S. threatens world security with its own foreign policies.
Ames Gerstenzang from the LA Times writes in the Houston Chronicle:
President Bush responded angrily Wednesday to differences with Europe over the war in Iraq and the treatment of prisoners at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. With public opinion surveys showing a growing animosity in Europe toward the United States amid fears that its anti-terrorism policies and the Iraq war are endangering global stability, the president raised his voice during a news conference and several times used the words "absurd" and "absurdity" to describe the criticism.
Contrast the above US reports about the US-EU summit with this typical European report from EU Observer, whose headline is "Warm words but wishy-washy results at EU-US summit":
Standing side by side with US president George W. Bush after a bilateral summit, EU leaders toned down their rhetoric on controversial issues highlighted before the meeting, despite not having any concrete commitments from Washington on visas, trade talks or climate change.
The EU sent a number of strong messages before the one-day gathering on Wednesday (21 June), pledging to be tough and call for real moves in several areas on the US side. Apart from Guantanamo - which Mr Bush said he would like to end but has to wait for a Supreme Court decision - the loudest pre-summit noise was made on the issue of a two-tier visa system for EU member states.
More coverage at the Eccentric Star Public Diplomacy Blog
Dr. Jackson Janes, executive director of the American Institute of Contemporary German Studies wrote about "Facing a Fragile Consensus":
The summit declaration addressed the many issues on the transatlantic agenda and expressed many good intentions to deal with them. Negotiating jointly with Iran was given a prominent slot as an indication of how far cooperation between Washington and Europe has progressed since the meltdown over Iraq. Yet at the press conference following the summit, President Bush was confronted with the continuing criticism directed at Guantanamo and the sagging image of the United States in Europe, where recent polls indicated that a third of Europeans see the United States as a bigger threat to world stability than Iran. Declaring such findings to be absurd, he dismissed polls as the gyroscope for his policies by arguing that he will do his best "to explain our foreign policy," and Austrian Chancellor Schüssel reminded everyone how important the United States was to the recovery of Europe after World War II.
But explaining present, not past, foreign policy has not been the among the polished skills coming out of Washington during the recent past and it remains to be seen whether such negative attitudes in Europe, toward the president and U.S. policies, will change significantly for the remaining period of the Bush presidency. (...)
The U.S. and Europe do need to coordinate their policies on the Doha Round, on Darfur and a host of other issues. Yet, domestic politics will shape the running space of all leaders on both sides of the Atlantic, where a fragile consensus defines the political debates.
It will be important for those leaders to try to understand our respective debates, as complicated and contradictory as they appear. In the case of the United States, the battle is on for Presidential bids in 2008, reflected in the Congressional confrontations during the past week. The U.S. will be a very noisy stage for the next twenty-eight months and it will be difficult but important to distinguish policy substance from style. In Europe, there remains uncertainty about what the next priorities will be for the EU and there are few clear voices to articulate it. With that in mind, Chancellor Merkel should have her team fully focused on her priorities when Germany assumes the EU presidency and the Chairmanship of the G8 in the first half of 2007.
Endnote: President Bush said at the EU-U.S. Summit that he would like to close Guantanamo, but "I'm waiting for the Supreme Court of the United States to determine the proper venue in which these people can be tried." Yesterday the NYT writes that the Supreme Court made a decision:
The Supreme Court on Thursday repudiated the Bush administration's plan to put Guantánamo detainees on trial before military commissions, ruling broadly that the commissions were unauthorized by federal statute and violated international law.
To pre-empt some of the comments I am likely to receive:
Yes, Europeans are responsible for many communication failures as well.
Yes, there are plenty of other reasons why President Bush is unpopular in Europe.
Yes, President Bush has expressed his appreciation of the European contributions to ISAF, Enduring Freedom, and Iraq many times.
The Atlantic Review is supposed to just summarize press articles and we try to focus on just doing that, but sometimes I feel I need to add some personal opinions.
Please suggest a new headline for this post that better describes the transatlantic disagreements, different perceptions, different assessments of threats, and the communication failures summarized in this post. What headline describes best the relationship between Bush administration and Europe? I know those are difficult questions. If you got an idea, I would appreciate it.
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