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Bush and Merkel: Charm and Iran -- War, Sanctions and DiplomacyPosted by Joerg Wolf in International Economics, Transatlantic Relations on Thursday, May 11. 2006
Some in the American media hope and a few in the German media fear that President Bush's "charm offensive" will lead to German support for U.S. policy on Iran. However, it is very unlikely that President Bush's kind of charm has an impact on Chancellor Merkel. The importance of the personal relationship between heads of government is often overestimated. Besides, President Bush might not expect a military contribution in a potential war with Iran anyway, because he told the German tabloid Bild (White House transcript) concerning the disagreements over Iraq:
I've come to realize that the nature of the German people are such that war is very abhorrent, that Germany is a country now that is -- no matter where they sit on the political spectrum, Germans are -- just don't like war. And I can understand that. There's a generation of people who had their lives torn about because of a terrible war.The Bush administration has high hopes in Merkel, because Blair and Chirac are pre-occupied with internal party politics and President Bush's Spanish and Italian allies, Aznar and Berlusconi, have not been re-elected. According to the International Herald Tribune,"Angela Merkel has steadily emerged as the European leader to watch" and "demonstrated a real skill in effective, low-key diplomacy. It worked in Europe, where she brokered a key compromise on the European Union budget last January." The German government works hard for a diplomatic solution and makes use of its good relationship with Russia and China and considers using its significant leverage over Iran. Commercial sanctions against Iran could prove very effective, as the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung points out (translation by Transatlantic Intelligencer): More comprehensive sanctions [i.e. including commercial sanctions] would be tied to ever higher costs also for the West – and, in particular, for Germany. Should commercial sanctions be applied, it would be first and foremost the EU states that are affected. In 2004, Germany was the most important supplier of Iran (12.3% of all imports), followed by France (8.5%), Italy (7.9%), and China (7.5%). Due to its long-term cooperation with Europe and a lack of local know-how, Iran is particularly dependent upon imports in the automobile and machine-building industries and the oil and gas sectors. As consequence, Iran could be highly susceptible to sanctions.Part of President Bush's charm offensive -- a term that was frequently used in the media recently -- might have been his remarks about wanting to close Guantanamo, get trials for the detainees and wait for the supreme court; see our earlier post. Prof. Hammel points out that some reaction in the U.S. media is only now starting to burble up. Slate, for instance, writes: "His statement was surprising for several reasons, not least because it represents a major reversal from prior policy statements about the camp." More at Prof. Hammel's German Joys. Welcome! You are reading the ATLANTIC REVIEW -- a Press Digest on Transatlantic Relations combined with commentary and analysis by four young professionals from Germany, the Netherlands and the United States. More about us. The horizontal menu bar at the top helps to navigate this site. Subscribe to one of our RSS-Feeds or to our newsletter, which is emailed twice per month.
Clarsonimus
- #1 - 2006-05-11 21:58 - (Reply)
I can't help but think that Merkel is the one who is doing all the charming. And the US government is understandably delighted that they have someone to talk "with" in Berlin again. Schröder made anything but a clean break, but it was definitely a real one (as in final). The relationship between these two countries will never be like it was before this happened, but I think everyone feels that Merkel is trustworthy enough to, if not mend the break, at least start something real herself. It won’t be what the US really wants, of course, but nobody expects that anymore.
Jorg
- #1.1 - 2006-05-11 22:13 - (Reply)
What kind of charming things did she say? Did she catch a glimps of President Bush's souls as well? Did she talk about Texas?
Zyme
- #3 - 2006-05-12 12:32 - (Reply)
The younger generation doesnt have a problem with war in general I would argue, as long as it is a reasonable one. Which means: since the taxpayer has to pay for it, he/she wants to see some benefits in it.
Zyme
- #4 - 2006-05-12 12:37 - (Reply)
A fine example is the Kongo case.
Jorg
- #4.1 - 2006-05-12 13:02 - (Reply)
Zyme, I would add that in addition to benefits the likelihood of success should play a role as well. I think the likelihood of successful airstrikes is small. Airstrikes against Iran will not stop the Iranian nuclear program, but only delay the nuclear program, while encouraging a rally around the flag effect, increase support for the regime in Iran, and delegitimate all reformers who ever tried to work for reconciliation with the West.
joe
- #5 - 2006-05-12 17:01 - (Reply)
It would appear there are no alternatives but to surrender to Iran.
Joerg
- #5.1 - 2006-05-12 17:36 - (Reply)
Joe.
joe
- #6 - 2006-05-12 19:19 - (Reply)
We should leave everything to the experts, OK. I have a degree of respect for the products RAND produces. I also very much think their views should be considered along with those of others who I also respect.
Kathy - At the Zoo
- #6.1 - 2006-05-12 21:39 - (Reply)
"This really shows a lack of trust by the West if one jumps to the conclusion this is part of a weapons program."
Fuchur
- #6.1.1 - 2006-05-12 22:47 - (Reply)
I guess Kathy missed your sarcasm. Serves you right, joe :-)
Dr. Dean
- #6.2 - 2006-05-15 13:41 - (Reply)
@Joe QUOTE: The use of hard power is not a viable option. This is the conclusion of not only experts but of Europe, their leaders as well as their citizens. My point of view is: 1. General statements about "Europe" or the "European citizens" do not fit well - in general... Compare it with your country. There is no homogene blcok of neocons. For example there are ultra militaristic necons, there are real fasists of the "Nuke mecca!"-type and most of them are moderate neocons. The GOP includes all of this types of neocons and additonally some types of "bible belt"-conservatives, moderate conservatives, old school conservatives, "strong republicans", christo fascists like Ann Coulter, many types of libertarian conservatives and so on and so on. Additionally: GOP is only a part of America. Really fasczinating and inhomogene. Same as "Europe". 2. I think a more appropriate "general" statement would be: The use of hard power is NOW (and for the next five years) not a viable option. This is the conclusion of not only experts but of Europe, most of their leaders as well as most of their citizens. The important word here is NOW. Hey Joe, this would be a really good start point for you for a an anti-"appeasement" rant (now)!
Kathy - At the Zoo
- #7 - 2006-05-12 20:10 - (Reply)
The point that bombing Iran facilities MIGHT make Iranians pull together behind their government is a valid one.
Fuchur
- #7.1 - 2006-05-12 22:43 - (Reply)
I really don´t know what you want from the Europeans. Last week, Merkel and Bush announced that they were in full agreement over the issue of Iran.
Harry
- #8 - 2006-05-13 14:43 - (Reply)
Here is an article that describes how the dollar inflation which is exported to the world is in fact a system of monetary imperialism, not so different from the Romans or British who had their colonies pay tribute. However, the system is more concealed, however, it works just as well.
joe
- #9 - 2006-05-13 21:55 - (Reply)
Fuchur,
Zyme
- #10 - 2006-05-13 22:03 - (Reply)
Not only will they go bankrupt long before we do, they will also have to worry about a great part of their population being too fat to be of any use anymore. Has anyone read the recently corrected numbers?
joe
- #11 - 2006-05-13 22:27 - (Reply)
.
Jorg
- #12 - 2006-05-14 09:33 - (Reply)
Talking about obesity:
Martin
- #13 - 2006-05-14 23:20 - (Reply)
Sarcasm is always a great way to criticize others without sharing your own point of view, which might be full of illogic as well.
joe
- #14 - 2006-05-15 01:12 - (Reply)
Martin,
joe
- #15 - 2006-05-15 05:41 - (Reply)
Martin,
The Editors of the Atlantic Review
- #15.1 - 2006-05-15 10:09 - (Reply)
Although we appreciate open discussions on our blog, we do not consider "Frau Fuehrer" an appropriate choice of words when speaking about Chancellor Merkel.
Fuchur
- #15.2 - 2006-05-15 13:36 - (Reply)
@joe
Joerg
- #15.2.1 - 2006-05-15 13:49 - (Reply)
Thanks, Fuchur. I appreciate that.
Fuchur
- #15.2.1.1 - 2006-05-15 14:26 - (Reply)
Well, thanks for your interesting blog!
joe
- #16 - 2006-05-15 14:17 - (Reply)
Thank you for bringing to my attention the unacceptable usage of the word Fueher of this blog. I found the translation of this word meant leader. I assumed it was an acceptable usage in this form as it is used by some German M$M when referring to the POTUS.
Joerg
- #16.1 - 2006-05-15 14:38 - (Reply)
You are referring to Spiegel Online.
Dr. Dean
- #16.2 - 2006-05-15 20:58 - (Reply)
Hey Joe, don't worry! QUOTE: No! No! Indeed, you are not missing background information.There must be background information that I missing. The usage of the word "Fuehrer" for a common german chancellor is typical e.g. for some simple minded Britishers. No problem with that, Joe! I am sure, its just your usage. Just one of your favorite words. It gives you a good feeling? Therefore i suppose you will use the word "Fuehrer" for Mr. Walker Bush, Romano Prodi or whatever. In your case: No problem! It makes clear that you are a perfect follower of the ideology behind "Davids Medienkritik" and all that stuff. They will welcome your way of thinking very much. Sure! You are a very good pupil!Ggallantly using ot this word! Great! Sincerely yours P.S. You are exaktly behaving and argueing in the way simple minded German loony lefties think: this is typical for Americans. In fact you are not...
joe
- #17 - 2006-05-16 01:12 - (Reply)
Fuchur
Jorg
- #18 - 2006-05-16 01:55 - (Reply)
"Critical" means that we are not singing childrens songs about transatlantic relations ("I love you, you love me, we are happy family") as some organizations devoted to better transatlantic relations do. Add Comment
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Ahead of President Bush's visit to Germany next week, The Economist is concerned that "America may expect too much help from Germany, whether on Iran, the Balkans or Russia." The respected British weekly acknowledges that Chancellor Merkel impro
Tracked: Jul 07, 21:21