I think everyone, even most supporters of the Kyoto treaty and the ICC treaty, agree that ratification by the US Senate will remain unlikely for the foreseeable future. I wonder if we can agree as to which one is less likely? I'm guessing the ICC treaty has a slightly worse chance than Kyoto.

I've studied the data quite a bit and still find myself on the side of the skeptics re human-caused global warming (AGW).

Clinton was in favor of Kyoto over a decade ago, and his party controlled the Senate, and still the informal Senate vote count was 90+ against (out of 100). Since then, the evidence for AGW has gotten weaker, not stronger. Believers now have to explain the "pause" in global temperature changes since 1998, plus the awkward fact that even before 1998, the observed increases only briefly sustained the low end of the range of predicted increases.

I agree that the political dialog has shifted as a result of this election campaign. However, once the politicians immerse themselves in the details, and realize the scale of what would be required to conform with Kyoto, they will realize that the current Bush administration position is the only viable way to get the treaty approved. That position is that it makes no sense to act unless countries like China and India are part of the agreement to limit emissions.

A different approach that might have a chance in the US would be to pass limits that fall short of the Kyoto levels but would represent symbolic reductions. This is what McCain and Obama seem to favor.

The irony here is that the Kyoto levels themselves are purely symbolic; if you look at the IPCC estimates, if Kyoto had been adopted according to the schedule, it wouldn't have prevented global warming, it would only have postponed global warming for a brief period (maybe 1 year). It would have required additional, post-Kyoto reductions equivalent to 5-10 simultaneous (not consecutive) Kyoto treaties in order to prevent the IPCC's projected global warming. Since Kyoto was not adopted on time, it will now allegedly require even more dramatic reductions today.

Fortunately for all of us, the IPCC is completely wrong on their estimates, and there is no current danger of AGW.

I will concede that it is a good thing that we are now monitoring the global climate in a way that we didn't do 20+ years ago. But everything we've learned during these 20+ years has demonstrated that we are still in the very early stages of understanding the global climate, and that we cannot predict it with any accuracy.