Friday, August 8. 2008
War in the Caucasus
Posted by Joerg Wolf in Transatlantic Relations on Friday, August 8. 2008
CNN reports:
Georgia's president said Friday that his country is under attack by Russian tanks and warplanes, and he accused Russia of targeting civilians as tensions over the breakaway Georgian region of South Ossetia appeared to boil over into full-blown conflict. "All day today, they've been bombing Georgia from numerous warplanes and specifically targeting (the) civilian population, and we have scores of wounded and dead among (the) civilian population all around the country," President Mikhail Saakashvili told CNN in an exclusive interview.
Please share interesting links to analyses in the mainstream media and blogosphere or write your own analyses on this escalating situation in the comment section. I am most interested in policy recommendations for the European and US governments.
Kyle Atwell has already asked the the big question "Will Europe and the US come to Georgia's aid?" in an Atlantic Review post in May 2008, when NATO membership for Georgia was discussed: Georgia Conflict: Should NATO Marry the Small Kid on the Playground?
UPDATE from Nanne Zwagerman: This AP analysis by Jim Heintz, on the Moscow newsdesk, is the best I've seen so far:
Behind the hostilities in South Ossetia are two nations that have long been spoiling for a fight, with Russia eager to show it's boss in the region and U.S.-backed Georgia determined to prove it can stand up to its huge neighbor. With Vladimir Putin in Beijing for the Olympic opening ceremony and the world's attention fixed on China, Georgia may have been betting it could pounce on an opportunity to quickly wrest control of its breakaway province. But the gamble may backfire: Washington hasn't endorsed Georgia's power play, and Moscow's counteroffensive has brought the two sides into a fight it will be hard for Georgia, a former Soviet state, to win.
My best guess would be that Russia will not go far beyond South Ossetia and will then only escalate further when Georgia launches a counterattack. This is looking more and more like a major miscalculation by Saakashvili.
There is no room for European interference here. Enforcing the independence of the Kosovo and putting Russia at bay in the Balkans makes only sense if you respect their immediate sphere of influence in Georgia.
Everything else is uncontrolled aggression, and I expect the Americans being guilty of that one here. While Georgia itself may be a poor country, important pipelines avoiding Russian territory cross it. Now we will be able to see how far that American support for the Georgian President will go.
I say we should let them slug it out. In the end a long-lasting conflict can be solved once and for all. Either the South-Ossetians (and the Abchasians, possibly) gain independence or Georgia's integrity is sealed. This war creates a perfect opportunity for settling a dispute which cannot be resolved with diplomatic means.
All together now: All we are saaaaaying is give war a chance," eh?
However, wouldn't this be the perfect opportunity for Europe as a whole to demonstrate the efficacy of soft power over hard power?
:)
What efficiency of "Soft Power"? I do not believe that you are honestly buying that propaganda phrase. Europe still is seperated by the differing foreign policies of its nations - should the day arrive when European foreign policy is united, you will certainly no longer hear the phrase of "Soft Power".
Oh, but Zyme, "Change" is in the air! Don't you feel it? Why it was in Berlin just a short time ago. :P
Ahem . . . Maybe Mr. Putin's notion of "change" is not the kind we can believe it, eh? ;)
I do think you have a good sense of what the future might bring when you write "should the day arrive when European foreign policy is united, you will certainly no longer hear the phrase of "Soft Power".
Without a healthy dose of cynicism, observing contemporary politics can drive you mad. I am convinced that you are safe though :)
Let's lift a beer to our mutual sanity, then. :)
[i]In the end a long-lasting conflict can be solved once and for all.[/i]
Yeah, just like the Middle East conflict was resolved once and for all in 1967...
[i]This war creates a perfect opportunity for settling a dispute which cannot be resolved with diplomatic means.[/i]
Silly me. Always thinking about blood and death and all the other minor nuisances war occasionally brings with itself. E.g., something like this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhumi_massacre.
It lifts my spirit to see that there are happier natures around, who don't share my glum view, but remind us that war also creates "perfect opportunities"...
I would say that in the post-modern world, the positive effects of war are neglected. Why endure decades of separatism and counter-separatism, a fragile stability everytime from sunrise to sunset if something that cannot be solved diplomatically can be resolved by one major offensive? All these tensions will be discharged by one thunderstorm.
It does not have to work, but it sure is worth a try.
Zyme, you might find the following article of interest in that it presents the essence of your thesis. The article was written by Edward Luttwak and appeared in the the July/August edition from 1999 of Foreign Affairs and is titled - you guessed it - "Give War a Chance". Here's a link to an open source version of it:
http://www.mtholyoke.edu/~jwestern/ps62/edward_n_luttwak.htm
Thank you for the link!
Btw - have you noticed that during all public announcements on TV, the Georgian President sits right next to a flag of Georgia AND the EU ?
For example:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7550354.stm
(The second video)
What could that mean? A trick to win sympathies?
I'm using dial-up here at home (yeah, I'm a dinosaur) so I'll check the video in my university office. But from what you describe, my first guess is that Saakashvili is primarily concerned with reassuring his domestic audience. I rather imagine that after the most recent Russian airstrikes deep into Georgia (Hmm . . . not far beyond South Ossetia you say, Joerg? You don't have too go far beyond to completely engulf Georgia.) ordinary Georgians are feeling a wee bit alone and abandoned. Maybe he wants to give his audience the impression that Georgia has the support of the EU in the face of the Russian attacks.
It's for show, of course, since member states of the EU are unlikely to do anything, at least anything in a timely manner, beyond public condemnation - if that. If he intends a message to EU states with the showing of the EU flag, then I would guess he intends simply to remind member states of the EU of the oft-stated interest in it by many Georgians including, of course, himself, and also of the steps Georgia has taken in pursuit of EU accession: "We're with you! (You should be with us).
By the way, I'm certain you are correct in connecting this with Western recognition of Kosovo. Whether that made sense or not can be debated another time. What I seem to recall is that Russia, in response, suggested that it would recognize South Ossetian and Abkhazian independence from Georgia if they "chose" it.
Given that the Russian intervention from these initial reports appears to be a reasonably well-coordinated combined-arms assault, it surely had to be planned some time ago. This is unlikely to be a coincidence. Shaakaskhvili may have walked into a trap. But, it seems to me that the overriding story here is this: "Payback's a bitch."
Georgia - what's left of it and its "independence" - after the butcher's bill is sorted out in the next week or two will be an interesting object lesson. It will very interesting to see what meaning is taken from this by various nations, their leadership, and their peoples.
SC, I think Georgians should consider changing their national anthem, whatever it is.
My candidate for the replacement anthem? A Lennon-McCartney tune you may remember (I think you may be of the proper age).
"Back in the USSR".
"Back in the USSR. You don't know how lucky you are boy. Back in the US, back in the US, back in the USSR. . . ."
Nice choice! :)
Oh yeah; by memory. The White Album. Of "a certain age", definitely. Not quite old enough to have partied in Southeast Asia, but old enough to be singing along at the time.
Some people in Azerbaijan are [url=http://www.today.az/news/politics/46846.html]feeling the same way[/url].
Im on the same wave, not our business !!!
I have read that Georgia is recalling her soldiers from Irak,
does anyone has further news about it ?
Yes it seems they have called home their soldiers from Iraq:
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/08/09/news/Iraq-Georgian-Troops.php
So if there's any kind of aggression involved, regardless of any sort of information being present, that the US caused it, and that Europe would be wise to do nothing and judgementally prognosticate and sneer later.
How cute.
The really funny part is that the US is the party now mediating a truce. If public attitudes are any sort of blueprint, you're right: Europe shouldn't ever get involved. Without several of conflicts sorting themselves out, I'm not too sure what they would do.
Why your channels don't show all videos from Georgia??? ONLY TANKS!!! I can give you links for other videos. I'm Russian, my best friend is Georgian. 60% people of Georgia hate Saakhashvili. My friend from Tbelisi said few days ago Georgia mobiled reserv soldiers. Tbilisi prepare this action. Russia is safe Russian citizens from GEORGIAN's AGRESSION!!!
Russia is just defending its citizens (a lot of peace people under Georgia’s fire). Russian peace forces with UN madate also were under Georgia’s direct fire - at least 10 dead and 30 wounded during this day! It’s a defending and completely adequate answer to the perfidious agression of Georgia and its genocide in relation to the Ossetians people (this night Georgia fired scools, hospitals and peace population by rocket installations “GRAD” and Georgia’s tanks). About 90% of people in the South Ossetia are citizens of Russia. A lot of dead in the Tkeshelashvili city. This city is ruined almost completely by Georhia’s fire during this night and day.
In my comment the city is Tskhinvali (South Ossetian capital) of course, sorry for this copy past mistake.
Saakashvili must return to his masters. Take him back, please.
Hey, our opponents don't see posts. May be messages from Russia censored???
Saakashvili is a liar. It is very interesting how CNN cover that story. Georgia started first and killed some Russian and then Russians invaded. I thought that CNN is better..
I have posted a few links to relevant articles over at
[url=http://atlantic-community.org/index/articles/view/HOT_ISSUE%3A_How_to_Respond_to_the_Caucasus_Crisis%3F]Atlantic Community: How to Respond to the Caucasus Crisis?[/url]
OK guys, our American friends won't discuse with us!!! USA propagand ministry work 100%. We just stupid bears with nuclear weapon. And USA is greatest country of the world with very intellegent president :) Lets go to mail.ru :)
In the context of war it's not good to have fun, but the Russian comments here are at least very revealing.
I heve fun your strange politic. CNN comments and reports. And fun abot all your not clever people. I have friends in Tbelisi, Vladikavkaz, Kursk, Yalta, Kiyev, Kharkov, Batumi, Erevan, Moscow. I live in Moscow and I born in Moscow, my wife is from Yalta (Crimea, Ukrain). In my organisation works 5 Ukranian citizens, 3 Tadjikhistan citizens and 3 Moldavian. NO ONE HAPPINES in self country, and all hate America. It's too very revealing. Don't see???
people don't be sad!
Saakashvily will reply in Gaaga for genocide of Ossetians anв for killing of Russian peaskeepers in Tskhenvali anyway. The Georgians can see who is their leader and where this way with him drive them...
What"s a fucking sticking lie was writes by CNN? Georgians killed 1500 civilians... and then Russian troops entered. Why CNN writes lies? This is american fucking democracy...
Just a short comment from Czech Republic. I hear Saakashvili to compare Czechoslovak invasion by Varszaw pact in 1968. It is nonsense - we did not shoot to Russians and did not provoke them militarily before the 68 invasion started. It is a lie ....
And on the CNN - it is really unprofessional work - they are brainwashing USA
Thanks... First adecvated not Russian post!!! What really situation about American anti-aircraft bases???
P.S. Krushovice forever ;)
Just business as usual - it is radar:-) Not anti aircratft base:-)
For what radar??? I think for control air :)
Why are you ling about Georgia? Why you don't say, that Georgian attack South Ossetian yesterday, and kill many civilian? Why?
Russia tank come into South Ossetian only today, when Tskhinvali was destroyed and over 1400 civilian dies?
This is bull shit.
Georgian military kills 1400 civilian people in 1 night and 12 russian peacmakers soldgers. Thats wai russian tanks roll in. Dont be stupide !!!
Dear Tony!
90 percent of South Osetians are citizens of Russia. Therefore, 12 Russian peacekeepers killed+90percent of 1400=1260. In summary 1274 Russian citizens killed.
Dear CNN viewers! Please be aware that the rocket launchers shredding Tskhinvali are not Russian - they are Georgian. And that's the way Saakashvili sees the police action - by multiple rocket launchers.
Russian tanks entered South Ossetia only one day after Tskhinvaly was partially levelled by Georgian military to stop further ethnical slaughter.
We, Russians, have done mistakes here and there. But it is so unfair that when we are really not the ones to blame - still, people see the stupid angry bear, portrayed by CNN. Shame on you, CNN.
The CNN story does wash out the fact that this started when the Georgians launched a major offensive against the capital of South Ossetia in the early morning. They have covered that in other stories earlier today, though. See [url=http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/07/georgia.ossetia/index.html]this report[/url]:
"[i]TBLISI, Georgia (CNN) -- As Georgian troops launched a major military offensive Friday to regain control over the breakaway province of South Ossetia, the former Soviet republic's president accused Russia of bombing its territory.[/i]"
This [url=http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jXAju8Dre_gHT_5COEHDSIa9GF7AD92E957G0]AP analysis[/url] by Jim Heintz, on the Moscow newsdesk, is the best I've seen so far. Small excerpt:
"[i]Behind the hostilities in South Ossetia are two nations that have long been spoiling for a fight, with Russia eager to show it's boss in the region and U.S.-backed Georgia determined to prove it can stand up to its huge neighbor.
With Vladimir Putin in Beijing for the Olympic opening ceremony and the world's attention fixed on China, Georgia may have been betting it could pounce on an opportunity to quickly wrest control of its breakaway province.
But the gamble may backfire: Washington hasn't endorsed Georgia's power play, and Moscow's counteroffensive has brought the two sides into a fight it will be hard for Georgia, a former Soviet state, to win.[/i]"
My best guess would be that Russia will not go far beyond South Ossetia and will then only escalate further when Georgia launches a counterattack.
This is looking more and more like a major miscalculation by Saakashvili.
You are right. The question is why CNN cover the story in that way. What might happen next?
I think Saakashvili is smart enough not to start this war with Russia without Bush support. Therefore, it is very probably that Bush will support Georgia and Russia will look like an agressor.
And then....
Welcome to the cold war PART II!!!
Or welcome to the first nuclear....
Oil prices will jump to 300$ and Bush will be the happiest man in the world because of that....
This is the worst case scenario.....
Oh... Main word in this post SOVIET :)))) LOL SOVIET=FEAR LOL!!! :))) Russia eager to show it's boss in the region LOL!!! Russia safe Georgia from Turkish genocide, safe from Greatest Osman Imperia in 18-th century. Oh, sorry, American don't learn history... Only Civilian War North-South. For what eager to show boss??? Stupid words...
I hope yours vote for Obama...
Nostradamus spoke third world war starts from middle east... I was hope it's not our neighbors... I was mistake...
First open couter NATO-RUSSIA in last 20 years :(
PEOPLE DO NOT TRUST THAT SPEAK mass-media!!!!! There is an INFORMATION WAR!!! FROM FOR AGGRESSIONS GRUZII it is killed THOUSAND INHABITANTS OSETII, OSSETS NOT SEPERATISTY LEARN HISTORY of the LORD And THEN ALREADY SOMETHING WRITE!!!! IN DAYS OF STALINA In particular!!!! I LIVE In Russia In SMALL CITY to me!; YEARS BUT I ITO KNOW THAT OCCURS ACTUALLY!!!! DO NOT GIVE ITSELF OBMONUT the AMERICAN CONSPIRATORS!!!!! HAS written THIS SMALL TEXT FOR YOU
To everyone trying to unfold conspiracies - please do it in ordinary letters.
You have to go along with the fun here, Zyme.
Or: eehm... *cough*... dear Russians, you're making yourselves look like Georgian plants. Really, now.
oh my god! IT'S ALL FALSE!!! MASS MEDIA - FALSE!!!
Really - Georgia attacks Ossetia... And RUSSIA SUCH AS DEFENDER OF OUR RUSSIAN MEN IN OSSETIA DEFFENDS! NO AGRESSIVE FROM RUSSIA !
BROBLEY SAYS TRUE TO MEN IN ALL WOLRD! GL BROBLEY!
It is all lies. Georgia first attacked South Osetiya. At night 8-9 of august, Georgian tropes attaked the S. Osetiya's capital and killed more than 1400 people and 12 russian peace soldiers, the next day russin tanks entered South Osetiya to protect their people and soldiers. Everything that say Georgian politics is lies. And world news don't show any Russian politics. It is an information war of the USA
Georgia MUST DIE. . . And SNN say Russia attack Georgia? :LOL:
So why Georgia attack Ossetia ?
[b]Dear Russian commenters, [/b]
[b]Thanks for visiting Atlantic Review. [/b]
You would be perceived more credible and less angry, if you would not write in capital letters. Just a suggestion.
Isn't South Ossetia a part of Georgia according to international law?
So technically, Russia is the invader, not Georgia. Right?
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No, because 97% of people living in S.Osetiya are Russian, and have Russian paspors. In 1990 started the war between Osetiya and Georgia, because Georgia wanted to dismiss some rights of this part of country. Than russian peace soldiers were entered at the conflict zone. And yesterday at 23:35 o'clock, Georgian tropes started the missile attack on the S.Osetiya's capital. Tell me, if it is the part of Georgian, why they started the missile attack? Why the killed the peace soldiers of Russia? Russian tanks enter the S.Osetiya only 12 hours late after Georgia started the war, and killed many non-militar people.
And Russia never attacked Georgian towns with the planes, it has been Georgian planes, they attacked the S.Osetiya's capital, one of them were destroyed. (sorry for my bad english)
Greetings! Your telechannels show not that that actually! Georgia has attacked South Ossetia, shoots inhabitants and peacemakers! Also declares that ĺňî Russia has attacked Georgia! Here esteem http: // lenta.ru/I think to you î÷ it will be interesting!
Dirty Lie!! Georgia is Aggressor! attacked South Ossetia!!
This conflict is a provocation from georgian side!
The Missiles in the CNN video are not russian, as you would guess! But this are georgians ones, that were bombing Tshinvali last night!
So this is the meanest and ceapest way of manipulating news by using pictures that do not refer to the text.
For me as a media and communication sciences student a clear mediamanipulation, or if you like US or georgian as-i-would-like-it-to-be way of worldperception.
And shame on the CNN as a internationaly trusted channel, that they provide in this way a completely unprofessional onedimensioned kind of information! hip-hip/houray to the free american press!!!
Dont forget, that most of the people abrod dont even know that south ossetia WAS till today a sovereign reublic inside of georgia!! If georgian win the next one attaced by georgia will be Abhasia, also a sovereign reublic. "Let there be blood"
here see a good link to the european televison site
euronews!Its a critical view to russian side, but it provides a WHOLE picture of the story an they noticed the conflict much sooner as CNN did!!!
http://www.euronews.net/en/
It is not surprising that 99% of the blog responses are from Russians, which clearly shows how strong their renewed propaganda and control of mass media are.
Before making hasty conclusions yourselves, try comparing Russian news pages using google translator: http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ru&u=http://www.newsru.com/&sa=X&oi=translate&resnum=2&ct=result&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dnews.ru%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DG
with actual international media. You will see how the information is being distorted, just like back in the cold-war soviet times.
In any case claims that Georgia would suddenly start to attack its own citizens can't be serious. Russia has been accumulating an increasing military manpower and war technique by the borders of Georgia and within the disputed region so this is clearly an well-planned invasion, considering that many leaders are currently visiting the Olympic game ceremonies in Beijing.
I would assume that Georgia will need military assistance from outer sources within a few months, if not weeks, considering Russia's superior military power, if Georgia does not wish to disappear from the world map.
"It is not surprising that 99% of the blog responses are from Russians, which clearly shows how strong their renewed propaganda and control of mass media are."
I bet there is a different reason. You can find it here:
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/08/georgia.ossetia/index.html
Scroll down to the bottom, and click on "From the Blogs: Controversy, commentary, and debate"
Et voila!
Ok let's see)
23.35 8 of august
Georgian tropes attack S. Osetiya capital. And they don't attack russian peace-soldiers.
There were 500 russian peace soldiers in the S.Osetiya
But no one of the American news channels said about this.
Next day
Georgian tropes start to kill our soldiers, and our army enters to help our soldiers and people.
Georgian tropes killd 1400 russian non-military people. Before our army entered the S.Osetiya.
But your news channels, started to tell you about this conflict, only when russian tanks entered S.Osetiya to help our people.
So what do you think now about your news channels?
First of all, Russians are answers here because we don't want this war. At least for me this is so. I'm 36 years old and have two sons 7 and 13. I'm really needn't this war and even the South Osetiya territory.
That's why your stories about Georgias disappearing are just funny.
Our troops came just because Georgian troops started killing russian UN peace keepers.
Our troops are just peace keepers. It was the choice of Osetiya people to be standalone several years ago, not Russian. And it is Georgia started war against South Osetiya people. Russian UN peace keeper just helped to keep the fragile peace.
>In any case claims that Georgia would suddenly start to attack its own citizens can't be serious.
Bravo! Now i really see how the information is being distorted :)
Citizens of S.Ossetia are not citizens of Georgia. Because S.Ossetia are not part of Georgia:
"...the referendum turned out a majority for independence from Georgia where 99% of South Ossetian voters supported independence and the turnout for the vote was 95% and the referendum was monitored by a team of 34 international observers from Germany, Austria, Poland, Sweden and other countries at 78 polling stations..."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Ossetia
Like Saakashvili people of S.Ossetia says:
"[our] country is in self-defense against [Georgian] aggression. [Georgian] troops invaded [S.Ossetia]."
"We must unite," [S.Ossetia] people wrote. "All of us, hundreds of thousands of [Ossetins] here and abroad, should come together, unite, and fight to save [S.Ossetia]. We are a freedom-loving people, and if our nation is united, no aggressor will be able to harm it."
I just replace Georgia with S.Ossetia, you see. Why you not trust that words? Because that words not printed on cnn.com pages? But that words have been spoken by 1400 died Ossetian peoples!!!
Are you trust in cold-war Truman times propaganda?
I agree with inyourmind. So far here are only Russians posting to each other which I find very interesting as a sociologist, so I guess any further comments on this matter would just intensify their reaction.
Russians so active in posting, because many people here have distorted representation about truth.
Russians not want war!
Its cnn.com cynical print about 1400 killed peaceful citizens of S.Ossetia, naming them "rebels". We really grieve about them.
Its our peacekeepers have been attacked in bad faith by Georgians, cnn.com not printed that.
We just want peace, not war.
If we really want real war, its already be happen.
Its been Third World War.
/Sorry for my poor english.
Dear Viewer,
please study not only US history, but history of Osetians for example. And then you know that before 1930-193... Osetia was independed people from Georgia. And Ossetians people didn't like Georgian's patron forever.
Crime always had power in Russia and it is restoring Еvil Еmpire about 15 years, while West sleeps. I won't be surprised if in news will appear something like "Russian tanks moving into Belarus to protect Lukashenko". Only in Ukraine they failed with Lukashenko-2.
Roman from Nizhny Novgorod, why then you did kill chechens ?
And why "peace keepers" made it possible to shoot to geaorgian villages?
And why we cannot open georgian sites anymore ? What do you hide?
Okay, who will be next when they will decide "to help people", Estonia, Latvia, Moldova or ...?
Funny thing in 2 stages.
1. Russia spreads russian passports on controlled territory of another country with help of Lukashenko-like creature. (Funny peacekeepers? )
2. Sends troops to protect these "citizens".
[img]http://i185.photobucket.com/albums/x94/Sirosh/pic2.jpg?t=1218229252[/img]
Who's really Evil ;)
In fact, to see real evil you had to place KGB colonel Putin there :) . Fascism was defected , but red fascism feels very good in Russia.
What is the "red fascism"? About WHAT you say? I dont understand you. Semantically, not because my poor english.
I see StopGang too much active in comments with russophobian propoganda stock phrases "KGB", "colonel Putin", "red fascism"...
Where are you from? Who are you, mr.StopGang? Why you so hate Russia?
Tell something personal about yourself, please.
Dont worry, i'm not "KGB agent", you not be died from "polony210" - give up that fearful stories for BBC maniacs.
Why you so hate russians, StopGang? :)
Just keep your facicm inside russia.
You don't know anything about Russia. Nobody killed chechens, most of chechens wanted to live with Russia, and now they do it with peace.
The goverments of Georgia, Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia are the american prostitutes and you know it.
Why we must want was in Osetiya? It doesn't have any petroleum or other goods.
Three basic news of the last day:
1) at Night Georgia has attacked South Ossetia, having destroyed half of Tskhinvali
2) Ossets, and then the Russian armies return the Ossetiya territory
3) World community is dissatisfied with it Russia the Third item it is possible was to avoid unless having capitulated before Georgia:)
P.S.: to all world in news twist about that as Russia has perfidiously intruded on territory of Georgia and bombs the markets in Tbilisi. The world, as usual, piously trusts.
I know russia very good. I even can tell you how population of Belarus is beaten by gum sticks to force them into "union with russia".
Bravo!!! What can one add to this? "Evil Empire", "West sleeps"... Jeez! Watching Star Wars before CNN? Sorry... could not help my self some times. To be fare to others these are not the only pearls of wisdom in this blog.
Nice questions though... Why? What?.. I admire that at least this author has a COURAGE to doubt what he sees and hears. Whether he also has a courage to think beyond the clearly marked borders is a separate question (borders drawn by TV and other media - who else?).
I can add a couple of "Why's" on top... Why USA invaded Iraq instead of Saudi Arabia? Why did they not manage to find weapons of mass distraction there? And why none seems to recall these questions any longer while war still goes on?... Oops there are perhaps sceletons all over and nothing is as clear and straight forward as it seems sometimes. Good shots though! Keep on asking questions and perhaps one day we can create a separate blog for answers.
Regarding the main topic I have only one last comment to make. One who has patience to read the whole string of discussion here and BRAIN to set the facts right will see a better picture. I am not going to repeat the facts time and again because despite the enormous desire to hide and mix them up correct information is still popping up here and there... True wisdom is ONLY :-) to set the things right by YOUR SELF. Perhaps not so easy for some here?..
Good luck to all avid CNN watchers! Every day in front of a TV is a like little step towards becoming a zomby... Cool!
Having russia nearby there's no need to see Star Wars. There will be enough Dirty Wars.
LOL LOL LOL
Crime, crime is everywhere!!! EVIL EMPIRE!!! And KGB and bears, babooshka, vodka, caviar. And drunk Russian soldier with BIG RED STARS on shapka :) :)
Are you fear??? Yyyyyyyyyyyeeeeeaaaaaahhhhhhhh........
KGB find you and catch to send you in Belarusian's secret jail.
Are you travel to Ukrain??? Are you see this panhandlers people??? Or you think that all Ukrain people love Yuschenko???
LOL
Really your rulers are not from KGB they worked as nurses in hospital.
"to send you in Belarusian's secret jail."
Who should be in jail? Here you can see results of russian presence in Belarus. top fotos:
http://www.bielarus.net/archives/2005/01/24/150/
http://lenta.ru/news/2008/08/09/anew/
Specially for our foreign friends
Translate it with google translator.
"Saakashvili's biggest miscalculation"... well I doubt this. For him, it appears more like a win-win situation. In any case, his strategy towards Georgia's joining NATO gets a boost given the aggressive image of Russia. Towards his own people, he can now say he has done his best to reunite Georgia.
Ooops, sorry. Moscow-based of course. BTW, that doesn't necessarily mean being biased, brainwashed, etc. I've followed closely CNN, BBC, and Russian channels from the very beginning of the conflict. While Russian media clearly supports the Russian version of events (what else can you expect, eh?), but, frankly, I expected a better coverage from CNN and BBC. Apart from videos (which may be interpreted either way), it would not hurt to invite some real experts to talk. Not just someone from Palo Alto with whatever degree in political science :-)
Sorry for later answer :)
And sorry for incompetence: who you mean in "just someone from Palo Alto"?
А еще лучше - по-русски, хоть это и неуважительно слегка к местным. Правильно ли я вас понял:
- вы считаете, что проамериканские СМИ недостаточно яро поддерживают Грузию?
- и вот там про экспертов и кого-то из Palo Alto - я не понял, если честно :)
(I translate this later)
I reccomend everybody listen not only Georgian or American news, but read Russian news sites too, so you can receive more objective information.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7550354.stm
I think that BBC has the most objective point of vision.
Here you can see the interview of the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, he gives the explanation of the situation.
Example of "most objective point of vision":
[url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_pictures/7549035.stm][img]http://img-fotki.yandex.ru/get/36/mcsimkammerer.6/0_12251_490e4bb4_L.jpg[/img][/url]
How the Georgian soldiers managed to evacuate women and children from Tskhinval, if Tskhinval was in control of "rebels"?
Who really on the foto? Is it regular Georgean army soldiers?
No, its "rebels" rescue his wifes and children from Georgean troops! Very "objective point of vision", yeah!
This "rebels" stayed in Tskhinval, to protect they houses.
Some hours later, by night, Georgia attacks Tskhinval by long-range artillery "Grad". [url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7546639.stm]"Click to play"[/url], says BBC. Well, let's play to WAR.
Tskhinval (town with ~30000 population) was destroyed, 1400 peoples killed.
Let's play to WAR...
Yes, Georgian tropes wear uniform of the US army.
And here you can see different uniform.
Exactly! (но пиндосы не вкурят палюбас)
"Let's play to WAR..." - exactly what russia does. Oh yeah, and looks like FSB/KGB again attacs internet :)
Rebels? Funny, these rebels appeared with russian help only.
Chechens killed and there's nothing to do. But yes, still there\s land to be attached to russia.
BTW some news on uncontrolled channel suddenly disappeared this morning and on euronews there was so funny russian text , as if you look Moscow Gebbels TV.
"Let's play to WAR..." - exactly what Georgia does. Lets discussing like a child :)
> Oh yeah, and looks like FSB/KGB again attacs internet :)
Your phobia about Russians is too fuzzy. Why you not worry about CIA, who build secret prisons all over World? Does "FSB/KGB" doing something like that?
Unfortunately, i think, "attacks internet" (you mean DDoS of Georgian sites, isnt?) not "FSB/KGB", but only russians hackers. Its war. You welcome.
>Rebels? Funny, these rebels appeared with russian help only.
Chechens killed and there's nothing to do. But yes, still there\s land to be attached to russia.
War is not funny. Dont forget that.
Chechens not to have rights to separate, no one official or just historical document for this. S.Ossettia was separate [url=http://translate.google.ru/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fru.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2F%25D0%25AE%25D0%25B6%25D0%25BD%25D0%25B0%25D1%258F_%25D0%259E%25D1%2581%25D0%25B5%25D1%2582%25D0%25B8%25D1%258F&sl=ru&tl=en&hl=ru&ie=UTF-8]BY GEORGIA[/url] (historically) and by referendum (offical).
>BTW some news on uncontrolled channel suddenly disappeared this morning and on euronews there was so funny russian text , as if you look Moscow Gebbels TV.
I see euronews today. In news says about Saakashvili attacks Tskhinval by artillery without notification. His rackets from "Grad" hit only rebels? "Click to play", stupido.
P.S.: And how can you see "Moscow Gebbels TV"? Where are you from?
Just press button "Power" and your zombie box will start to speak.
"War is not funny."
Tell it Medve-Putin. Or you fear that he will make you private?
From Der Spiegelfechter: [url=http://www.spiegelfechter.com/wordpress/384/georgien-spielt-va-banque]Georgien spielt va banque[/url].
How will the successor state of Russia and the other CIS members square the promise and signature in 1992, "...to recognize Georgia in its borders?" Russia very well may claim to have a moral right to the area but since they recognized the borders how will they recognize South Ossetia and then have a legal leg to stand on in regards Kaliningrad or its Far Eastern provinces when China begins to suggest that these lands are historically and culturally not Russian.
Also India and Pakistan are still wearing uniforms and insignia that came straight from the period of the British Raj but I doubt that makes them British any more than Georgian soldiers that are wearing American designed uniforms, that are probably being stitiched as we speak in China, makes them from Atlanta.
And even as Russia makes its border rational it risks alienating an alternative source of fuel for Europe via the soon to be online pipeline through Georgia that is not controlled by Gazprom. Europe may indeed now have the ability to resist some of the more brazen "requests" of Russia because of the mistrust of Russian actions in Georgia and South Ossetia, a more than 20% drop in oil prices and and the creation of an independent of Gazprom source of energy for the EU nations.
I think Saakashvili always wanted to play the game.
"Reunion" was a part of his election program. He even had a promotional hymn called "Misha Magaria" ("Michail is cool"). Here is a link to it's translation:
http://caucasusreports.blogspot.com/2007/12/misha-is-cool.html
A quote:
Georgia will become united
Our army will put its feet on our land
We are on the highway going to Sukhumi [capital of Georgia's breakaway region of Abkhazia]
So, if he wins this war, Abkhazia (250,000 people denying Georgian government) is on the way.
---
About Russia escalating war. Russia has no choice whether to defend Osetia or not, since most of Osetians have Russian citizenship. It does not matter now how did they gain passports - we are obliged to defend them like we'd have to defend Russian citizens living in Moscow, for example.
---
Also I do not understand why America plays on the Georgia's side now: because of the armed conflict Georgia wants to withdraw 2,000 its soldiers out of Iraq, and this "loss" must be replenished somehow (w' American soldiers, I suppose).
We don't want war!
Georgian military kills 1400 civilian people in 1 night and 12 russian peacmakers soldgers. Thats wai russian tanks roll in. Dont be stupide !!!
Who did calculate? Were russian tanks already inside ?
Don\t make us stupid.
When people were killed russian tanks were not inside Tskhinvali. 1400 is aproximate count. Russian correpondents were there under attack.
This is a random number named by Russian mass media. "Dont be stupide !!!"
Russian media claims such a huge number of civil deaths in a barren city (look at the windows in the videos.. all people have left the place or hidden in the bunkers) and there actually should have been just a few hours for invasion forces to do estimates about fallen (in the middle of fighting!?), which is truly impossible.
Now Russian media says "1400", "1500" and everybody believes that blindly. Russian media says "dead people all around the streets" showing us videos with empty barren streets and houses with no piles of bodies or something like that BECAUSE THERE IS NO PILES OF THE DEAD. If there would, why don't they show proof of that?
Same as during the first week after an earthquake mass media is very careful do do any estimations about the number of dead which is precisely calculated only in the next few weeks or in about a month but here we get such an accurate estimation by forces that have been driven out of the city during the same day of invasion.
People. Don't belive the americam news. When I have looked the American news, I was horrified! All is presented so as if Russia has attacked Georgia. It is lie. Was lost already 1400 person (for incomplete day) which have killed the Georgian armies, 15 peacemakers who too have killed the Georgian armies, how many are necessary for you still victims that you have started to think. Georgians make a genocide concerning the osset. All peace population, those who was in time or could, rescues itself leaving in Russia. It is very bad, that you do not know Russian. You would have an opportunity to read except for the American press also Russian-speaking. And two sources of the information is better than one. But there is a decision - at Google there is a translator of pages. Having translated, you will have an opportunity to read not only CNN (CNN, speak by the way frank boxes, probably same, as well as in days of the beginning of the Iraq war).You will have an opportunity to read both the Georgian news, and Russian. Already three sources of the information independent from each other!
And nobody to trust. Only to itself. There, where there are facts with proofs, there, where are no emotions, there, where there are аpplications of officers From the PLACE of EVENTS - there much more truths, than simply muffled reporting telling as all badly and here still people the girl, and here the boy cry, and there, and there the torn off hand is a technology of a manipulation opinion.
Understand the conflict the Georgian and the osset, which exists any more one hundred years.
Every person should not believe in what Mass Media tells. It is only the plan of politics. All this info is the whole outrageous lie. I'm from Osetia and I know that Geogia attack my nation, my motherland at night. They bagan their dirty business. They killed more than 1500 civilians. They killed russian peace-maker. They took prisoners. Everything what u can whatch on Tv was done ONLY by Georgia. If the Russian forces didn't come the WHOLE Ossetian nation would die. THE WORLD MUST KNOW THE TRUTH.
Hi All!
Could we discuss without emotions?
Can somebody outline here the DIFFERENCE between Kosovо and Osetia cases?
I try translate for our American friends.
MUDAK [muda'k] dirty Russian word, like American "bastard", "motherfucker".
Soldiers in CNN photos weared regular Russian camouflage. How can it be Georgian soldiers??? Ohh...
[b]Dear Russian friends,
what are your policy recommendations for the European and US governments concerning this conflict?[/b]
Dear Joerg,
US governments doesn't need any recommendations.
Moreover, it really deffends national interest, which historically is in setting on to fight countries - potential competitors.
As far as consern EU goverment, I have only explanation - restricted sovereignty after second world war.
They made by themselft Kosovo criminal enclave!
А just can not explain it from common sense.
Just to replace agressors troops with international forces.
If there will be international support - Russia will withdraw.
It will be different for bloody bear, not only small country to attack.
Policy recommendations for the European and US governments concerning this conflict:
First of all convince Georgia to stop fire, return its troops to initial positions according to previous agreements and according to decisions of UN.
I recomend catch Saakhashvili and judge him in Gaaga. Make united church-office for death people. And help to reconstruct Tskhinvali. Later make new DEMOCRATIAN voted and choose new president. And recognize autonomy of S. Osetia, Abkhazia compound Georgia. I say AUTONOMY, not INDEPENDENT!!!
It's pure idealism.
After wars with Georgia...
Brutal wars...
It's absolutely impossible.
Especially after Kosovo precendent.
Exactly after Kosovo precendent!
And after Karadzic precedent.
Saakashvili to commit a crime against humanity. Gaaga.
What do you mean with the reference to these "precedents"?
Keep going, one more comment and we got a hundred comments full. That would be a new record for Atlantic Review.
Unfortunately most comments are rather short and lack concrete policy advice for de-escalating the situation and laying the path for a long-term solution.
Kosovo - S.Ossetia
Karadzic - Saakashvili
You dont understand me endeed?
Comment is short, because its difficult for me - speak on english.
If you first of all worry about "records" of comments, i left, of course.
P.S.:
[url=http://newsforums.bbc.co.uk/ws/thread.jspa?forumID=6856]«Что бы узнать кто напал на мирных людей, посмотрите куда бегут беженцы.
Рустам.»[/url]
Try to translate this.
"judge him in Gaaga."
Where?
"Later make new DEMOCRATIAN voted and choose new president."
In Russia?
"And recognize autonomy of S. Osetia, Abkhazia compound Georgia. I say AUTONOMY, not INDEPENDENT!!!"
I don't think foreign countries can recognize the autonomy of a part of another country.
Foreign countries can only recognize independence of another country.
CNN also shows Georgian installation of rocket fire, which leads fire on residential areas of Tshinvali and comments it as "Russian troops invasion".
Still there's accessible site in Georgia.
http://www.hotels.ltd.ge/tbilisi-blog/
Still did nobody notice that all TV footage from the President of Georgia during this fighting shows him sitting next to a flag of the EU ?
What might be the intention behind that ?
That gets him designated as 'pro-western' in the press. Doesn't spur any real action to support him in this on part of the west, though. It's a bit silly, as Georgia is not an EU country and likely won't be allowed into negotiations for the next 10 years.
I wonder why the Pesident of Georgia isn't using the NATO flag in the same manner as well. That would make more sense, as Georgia's EU membershop is not even being discussed yet. Anyway, the flag's is plain propaganda setup, and barely leagal, IMHO.
1 russian terrorist detained.
http://hotels.ltd.ge/tbilisi-blog/?p=1618
Terrorists are all you Americans people. Hogs, Emigrants, Crimes, this your "nation" without history and ethnos. All yours accomplishments is a genocide Red Indians and piteous state of White people compere "Afroamericans".
Here are results of russian bombing:
http://hotels.ltd.ge/tbilisi-blog/?p=1619
I thouth Amirica save Economy with Iran war (not Iraq don't mistake our Yankie friends :) Candolisa choose other way. More faithless.
Next adrenalin ijection for BIG, FAT, HUGE, but unfunctionally organism.
Iraq(former), Luka, Iran, Venezualla , North Korea are your friends that help Russia to rise oil prices?
Why Iraq is former? Because your friends want lower prices of oil despite many deaths of peaceful people?
I see StopGang too much active in comments with russophobian propoganda stock phrases "KGB", "colonel Putin", "red fascism"...
Where are you from? Who are you, mr.StopGang? Why you so hate Russia?
Tell something personal about yourself, please.
Dont worry, i'm not "KGB agent", you not be died from "polony210" - give up that fearful stories for BBC maniacs.
Why you so hate russians, StopGang? :)
Чего ты боишься? :)
Do you fear truth ? Or propaganda does not work with this component?
i'm not fear truth.
truth on russian side.
what fear you, StopGang?
who are you?
Yes, you're not "fear truth", you're McSimKammerer regular fascist from Russia. Sure that's your natianal mentality. Being bigger and fatter is equal to have truth. Does it matter who am I? Just keep your polonium unused :) You did so much evil, so that would be good time to start to fear youself. People says that evil just returns back from time to time.
And don't forget to look there:
http://hotels.ltd.ge/tbilisi-blog/?p=1619
"regular fascist"
Do you know me personal?
"evil just returns back from time to time"
Fight with evil - its your mission on Earth?
Are you member of any sect?
"your natianal mentality"
I repeat and repeat - why you hate russians?
Who from russians hurt your feelings in your childhood?
http://hotels.ltd.ge/tbilisi-blog/?p=1619
Its very very terribly.
Saakashvili must answer for the consequences of that war.
His agressive politic bring to many deaths of civilians.
Why he start the war without secure at least Georgean civilians close by front?
How many civilians dies in Tshinval after night attack by "Grad"!
Bloody murder :(
I think his like Belyakov from Taganrog. Old loser and jerkwad dialogue with TV.
http://www.nasha-russia.ru/download/3/25/4
exactly!
he understand russian, i think.
2Anton
I think that hi is dickhead. (äîëáî¸á ęŕđî÷ĺ))).
2Stop Gang
You sit here, in internet and write thats Russians attacked Georgia and kill civilians? At this time people from Georgia,Osetiya and Russia died, because Saakashvili want in NATO!!!
This people is our brothers, and you words are fuck! Fershtein? Fuckoff your hands from our brothers.
Say me - why in georgia stop translate russian TV and x4 the radio translation from USA? They fear of truth.
Do you teach the history in school? As i remember, Russia not conquest anybody - other wants to conquest the Russia and Europe - Mongols, Napoleon, Fuckin Gitler - all of they went from Russia with sword in ass.
We are not agressive nation, as other nations too.
The government of some nations agressive.
Thats why Georgia attacked Osetiya.
You so much watch hollywood films about Russia, and think that you now how we live here? Whatafucka! Read the books, maybe it helps you, and at next time you will be much more honest boy.
I think and hope that lion piece of americans understand that all that you write here is impossible shit. Peoples - are brothers, governments - a devils, thats killed peoples for they interests.
Ňű ďîíŕńěîňđĺëń˙ ăîëëčâóäńęčő ôčëüěîâ ďđî âîéíó č äóěŕĺřü, ÷ňî Ŕěĺđčęŕ îäíŕ ďîáĺäčëŕ Ăčňëĺđŕ, ěű ňóň, áë˙äü, ń ěĺäâĺä˙ěč ňŕíöóĺě č ń íčěč ćĺ ďüĺě âîäęó, ŕ íŕ ńĺęđĺňíűő áŕçŕő ó íŕń ăîňîâčňń˙ âîéńęî ďî çŕâîĺâŕíčţ âńĺăî ěčđŕ, ŕ Ďóňčí íŕř âîćŕę! )))) ŕ ĺůĺ ÷ňî ěű âńĺ ňóň ňóďűĺ č íčőđĺíŕ íĺ ďîíčěŕĺě.
"Cette thčse (interférence US en Géorgie) était en général envisagée ces derničres semaines ŕ Bruxelles, dans les milieux européens, d’une façon informelle et ŕ l’abri des regards indiscrets. Aprčs avoir longtemps craint une attaque de l’Iran comme initiative déstabilisatrice majeure de l’administration GW Bush en fin de course, notamment pour aider le candidat républicain McCain, on cultivait l’hypothčse d’un coup de pouce au président géorgien, et des “conseils” de la Maison-Blanche ou de ses relais dans le sens d’une attaque. Les męmes hypothčses allaient jusqu’ŕ envisager une intervention US, de type symbolique, avec le stationnement officiels de détachements US sans participation aux combats"
what do you think of that ?
globally this analyst says that Georgia gave a hand to McCain campain, because he his for the military expenses candidate, also that Georgia would have receive an assurance to become a member of Nato as reward, thus the open door to adherre to EU next. what kind of "crap" are we going to endorse next !
Eu seems to be the "medal award" for good services to the US, see how Bush emphasised this option with Turkey.
My fellows europeans, it's time to draw the bottom line of this next big mess.
We don't want more countries that are not of our sphere influence
Hmm , that's only the beginiing
http://hotels.ltd.ge/tbilisi-blog/?p=1616
You guys just have to spit to Gergia even more loudly, or you will have opportunity to serve your Reich on front .
Belive me , that really doesn't look like sitting in front of computer. So .. work really hard.
Why you happy with this? Why you happy with escalating war? Why you happy when people dies?
Who are you?
Looks like that's you who is happy, but how long ...
Its like a delirium...
I repeat - WE DONT WANT WAR.
Russians not happy with this situation at all.
Russians not happy with casualties (ossetin, georgean or russian).
And again, and again:
Why you happy, when people dies?
Who are you?
Where are you from?
Why you hate russians?
Its just a simpliest questions, answer it.
Or tell to all why you dont want to answer :)
A view from an average American. Georgia indeed has the right to defend its territorial integrity. Its borders where agreed upon with Russia after the demise of the Soviet Union. Given the state of Russia's leadership, Mr. Saakashvili must have known that Russia would interfere if they tried to reassert their sovereignty by force. Was it a miscalculation? I don't believe so but the question for Georgia is: now what? I only hope Georgian army delivers a bloody nose to Russia. Hang in there!!
All average american in his houses from thousands km from Caucasus want more and more blood in that war?
I dont want believe in that :(
Some about "territorial integrity": i repeat, S.Ossettia was separate by Georgia (historically) and by referendum (offical).
[url=http://translate.google.ru/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fru.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2F%25D0%25AE%25D0%25B6%25D0%25BD%25D0%25B0%25D1%258F_%25D0%259E%25D1%2581%25D0%25B5%25D1%2582%25D0%25B8%25D1%258F&sl=ru&tl=en&hl=ru&ie=UTF-8]RTFM[/url]
Some about "reassert their sovereignty": Russia dont want violate sovereignty of Georgia ("russians imperial claim" - invention of russophobia, we understand - USSR irrevocable, we dont want bygone problems), but dont tolerate with extirpation of Ossetians.
Why US, why NATO so aspire to make strong influence in near-Russia regions?
Are you really not understand possibility of escalating wars like that into Third WW?
I'm really scare, i want peaceful life for my son, my future children.
Ok, I'll repeat a point I made earlier. In 1992 Russia and the other states of the CIS signed an agreement that recognized the borders of Georgia. And those borders included South Ossetia so then what legal justification, other than fabricated, can Russia use to intervene into territory it has pledged to the control and sovereignty of Georgia? Can The Ukraine or Bealarus now feel reassured that its own restive Russian minority might feel emboldened and ask for help to return to its Slavic homeland.
Referendum or not, passports or not, this is a matter between the Georgians and the South Ossetians. Or is sovereignty to be determined simply by passing out passports? Is that really a legality that Russia wants to pursue considering their are probably many areas of the old USSR that would rather be Finnish, Azeri or a passport holder of the Baltic tigers? Tah dah, EU passport, oh, the temptation must be terrific!
Okay, but whilst Georgia wanted to include South Ossetia into their borders, South Ossetia was against that. And all former Soviet republics (even South Ossetia!) had the right to decide for themselves where they belonged to. They decided to stick to Russia - whether you like or not.
Now Georgia was stupid enough to try to settle the dispute by force - and had their ass promptly kicked by the Russian war machine (an unexpected move, probably!).
Noone wanted that war - except for those who started it.
Saakashvili has chosen the moment right though. Now that everyone's watching the Olympics, they won't care to want to find out what's really happening over there.
P.S. Russian guys, please write more eligible, take some grammar lessons, etc. It's a shame to see how lousy your English really is :(
>P.S. Russian guys, please write more eligible, take some grammar lessons, etc. It's a shame to see how lousy your English really is :(
I again apologise for my terrible english, but i cant study this difficult language to me (try translate something from russian!) in couple of days.
I think, principal now - meaning of discussing, but not cover for that meaning.
In any case, you understand me, don’t you?
Oh Pat, you are so literal about these things. You expect mere scribblings on a piece of paper or lines on a map to stand athwart the will of the people to be as one? As one once said, long ago, so our Russian friends now say: "Not as tyrants have we come, but as liberators".
Hmmm . . . something said by Santayana . . . just can't seem to recall it. . .
Ok, I confess I do like the fine print and the big print on treaties. I expected at least the Russians to have pictures of dead bodies in Georgian uniforms all around a radio station in Russia that was dedicated to Classic Rock. A little ingenuity rather than a whole lot of 155mm shells tossed at random.
Plus instead of Santayana I was thinkig more along the lines of Robert Frost's observation that, "Good fences make good neighbors..."
Oh, you are wicked! ;)
Well, Joerg asked for some interesting analysis. So, let's see if I can stir the pot a bit with a little opinion and analysis written by Yulia Latynina who has written for Novaya Gazetta
http://www.rferl.org/content/South_Ossetia_Crisis_Could_Be_Russian_Chance_To_Defeat_Siloviki/1189525.html
How about a little rant, analysis, and some interesting links from a blogger interested in Central Asian affairs who seems to think that the focus of Russian diplomacy at the moment is Brussels
http://www.registan.net/index.php/2008/08/09/ignore-the-day-to-day-and-also-bloggers/
And what's up with Obama and McCain now competing to sound a bit tough
http://www.reuters.com/article/europeCrisis/idUSN09504234
So this is now fodder for the US Presidential race - heaven help us!
> Ok, I'll repeat a point I made earlier. In 1992 Russia and the other states of the CIS signed an agreement that recognized the borders of Georgia. And those borders included South Ossetia...
[url=http://translate.google.ru/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fru.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2F%25D0%25AE%25D0%25B6%25D0%25BD%25D0%25B0%25D1%258F_%25D0%259E%25D1%2581%25D0%25B5%25D1%2582%25D0%25B8%25D1%258F&sl=ru&tl=en&hl=ru&ie=UTF-8]see "The history of Georgian-Ossetian conflict"[/url]
[url=http://translate.google.ru/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fru.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2F%25D0%2594%25D0%25B0%25D0%25B3%25D0%25BE%25D0%25BC%25D1%258B%25D1%2581%25D1%2581%25D0%25BA%25D0%25B8%25D0%25B5_%25D1%2581%25D0%25BE%25D0%25B3%25D0%25BB%25D0%25B0%25D1%2588%25D0%25B5%25D0%25BD%25D0%25B8%25D1%258F&sl=ru&tl=en&hl=ru&ie=UTF-8] Dagomysskie agreement[/url]
Where you see "agreement that recognized the borders of Georgia"?
>Referendum or not...
Referendum (no, 2 referendums!) - not legal?
>passports or not...
I agree - passports is just trick for protect people of S.Osetia from Georgian agression.
Why you not say no one word about NATO in near-Russia region?
In the quote from the article which states, "Along with the territorial integrity of Georgia, the OSCE recognizes the territorial integrity and South Ossetia within the borders of the former South Ossetia Autonomous Region." Plain reading suggests that the recognition was confined to the borders of South Ossetia as an autonomous region not as an independent country. There is absolutely nothing in that document that creates a state of independence for South Ossetia other than might makes right. Else why would the assurance to preserve the borders of Georgia be mentioned first and that South Ossetia as a subordinate clause.
Plus the recognition of borders is in the Preamble to the document creating the CIS in 1991 which, though defunct de facto, is still considered binding on the member states. Just as the surrendering of nuclear weapons by the successor states to Russia. Or is it now Russia's position that since they are no longer bound to respect the sovereignty of its neighbors then it will begin to return some of the nuclear weapons that the CST was created to accomplish. I'm sure the Georgians or The Ukraine would think that maybe that was a fair trade. One backward Soviet style cancer vs. membership in the nuclear club.
http://therussiasite.org/legal/laws/CISagreement.html/
> There is absolutely nothing in that document that creates a state of independence for South Ossetia other than might makes right.
Who demand "independence for South Ossetia"? Autonomy, without bloody georgian "policy actions" - its all.
Russia have been successor of USSR. Russia, for example, inherit huge external debt. "I'm sure the Georgians or The Ukraine" not wanted after disintegration USSR to take part of this debt. Nice trade - nuclear and no debt for Georgians and Ukraine ;)
That's a rather unique way of ignoring a treaty that Russia and the successors states signed in 1991 and 1992 to prevent just the current situation from happening. And these tiny republics, according to the CST did not have any choice in the matter other than having the military ability to keep the new Russian Federation from recreating the USSR on the spot.
The problem still remains in that Russia signed the guarantee and neither South Ossetia, Abkhazia or Ajaria are mentioned. But "...all former Soviet republics had the right to decide for themselves where they belonged to. They decided to stick to Russia..." must be news to The Ukraine, Belarus, Azerbijan, Armenia, Moldava, Georgia, and the 'Stans.
Will any of these republics trust anything Russia signs now that the 58th Army has crossed the border into Georgia? And it is still Georgia as no one has yet recognized South Ossetia as anything other than a place to visit to see how bad the Russians run their protectorates. Plus this window of opportunity for the Russians will last as long as the Georgians do not attack the 58th Army's supply line of the Transcaucasian Highway. That walk back across the border will have even more catastrophic results in Russia then that victory parade across the Friendship Bridge out of Afghanistan.
And again "recreating the USSR"! Where you see it? At least no one of ex-USSR respublic not be rejoined to Russia, why you repeat that words again and again?
Russia wants autonomy for S.Osetia and Abhasia, Russia want protect them from georgian agression and massacres of ethnic civilians, like in S.Osetia before 1992. And even covering force of russian peacekeepers not stop Saakashvili to attack Tskhinval!
OK, my English is bad, but your understand me. Know your other langueges??? Only English, American, Australian and little Canadian? :)
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I am afraid, in french, (switzer paper for those that fear a french opinion)
http://www.20minutes.fr/article/243710/Monde-Que-se-passe-t-il-en-Ossetie-du-Sud.php (switzer paper)
http://desourcesure.com/guerreterrorisme/2008/08/georgierussie_vers_une_guerre.php
listen to the last video(french though), the expert says that the conflict is one of the end of empire’s one. (sortie d’empire)
She also doubts that this conflict will degenerate as a global war, cause no belligerent in situation has interest in it ; even Nato doesn’t want to interfer, neither the US want take part in it, even if they are more present there than in Ukrainia.
I know that the “guerillas” started 15 years ago when URSS broke down, Ossetia claimed for its independance according to its statut of independance that was given by Stalin in 1922. Things remained ambivalent until the election of the last president of Georgia, that wanted then to compose with the whole territories.
Now the Russians had the "malicious influence” there in Ossetia, in order to maintain Georgia in a weak position. But they surprinsingly are not for the independance of the dissident republic of Ossetia, but just for keeping the indefinissable statut there.
Im not sure of the real raison why this latter bellicous action started for, I have read that the president of Georgia is a bit impulsive, and wants that the things get quicker.... something like to force the fate, and or the americans' hands, for more help and recognition as a Nato force
seems that the Georgian president played poker last week, he thought he had the "joker" card that would allow him to reverse the fate and he wanted that the western world acknoledges how clever and powerful he is.
If that "coup" would had reached his objectives, we all be yet in the state to get ready for a global war, and this georgian fellow would enter into history like that one of Serbia that determined WW1.
Kind of "hubris" syndrome there, he miscalculed his real forces and external supports. The Americans won't give a hand more than watching the evenments there. This is only due to Saakachvili's personnality, kinda "mafioso's" and how silly of him to imagine that the Russians won't immediately react ; its also misrealising the russian experience for centuries over the Caucassus territories...
I don't want to predict how Saakachvili 'll finish, but I can say, that if he hadn't yet had the effective and concrete support of the Nato countries, he will never get it, the western world will more likely be waiting until that a pondered candidate take the seat.
http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/08/did-us-military.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/08/russia.georgia1
We have published a new post on this war:
[url=http://atlanticreview.org/archives/1143-What-to-Expect-from-the-Georgia-Russia-Crisis.html]What to Expect from the Georgia-Russia Crisis [/url]
[quote]South Ossetia might well become Georgia's Chechnya. And the European Union might be the best-placed player conflict manager in the South Caucasus, concludes Professor Stefan Wolff from the University of Nottingham in this guest article for Atlantic Review:[/quote]
[url=http://atlanticreview.org/archives/1143-What-to-Expect-from-the-Georgia-Russia-Crisis.html]http://atlanticreview.org/archives/1143-What-to-Expect-from-the-Georgia-Russia-Crisis.html[/url]
Why are you so hot wish that for Russia?
For what you so hate Russians?
Now, now: Whining is not appreciated here. You gotta develop a thicker skin.
Then WHAT is appreciated here?
Cowardly outrage opponents?
Somebody sit behind his monitor and brave combat by type in perfect tabloid style phrases like "KGB", "Medve-Putin"... blah... blah... blah...
And not answer for simpliest questions :)
What a manner of discussing for serious web-site? Or i was misunderstanding in seriousness of that topic? May be, there is a place for clown wars?
"Whining"... Not often your skin are too fat, your brains are too small for understand seriousness of that war!
Its nearly the Russia-NATO confrontation. Plans to join Georgia and Ukraine to NATO is too cynical call for Russia - its like a russians rockets on Cuba in 1962. Its Caribbean crisis II.
JFK was sane politic. What you think about Bush?
I want to see your face, when thousands ballistic missile start destroy all over the World. Too fantastic, you think? Couples of missteps from both sides and your "thick skin" smash to neutrons for square kilometers wherever you be. Even through you be in Antarctica.
Good luck, brave Thick Skin Typer!
Ahem . . . I suppose I'm belaboring the point to note that this is not what I had in mind. :)
Yes, I think your concerns about either a NATO, much less a nuclear, confrontation with Russia are a wee bit overwrought. A quick look at the map and a brief survey of the current disposition of US and NATO forces regionally and worldwide ought to suggest a 0% probability of US intervention, and if that, then a 0% probability of NATO intervention in the conflict. If that weren't enough then, as already noted here and elsewhere on the site, the politics in Europe, and especially the US at this time, prevents it: Not going to happen.
damn
Probably, my english is too poor for that discussion :(
1. Georgia was step by one foot in NATO.
2. Ukraine just about to join NATO.
What be in future with that "disposition"? If that not remind you of occurrences on Cuba in 1962, i dont know what i can say else.
Imagine situation, when on border Russia-Ukraine in region of Crimea begin troubles, provocations, firing by night, like in S.Osetia 08.08.08. And Ukraine are in NATO already. How much probability you suppose of US or NATO intervention?
Its been a f**kin Third WW with lethal end to all.
In response to your two points:
1. No, Georgia's petition for NATO membership was effectively blocked by Germany and France at the last NATO meeting. The two combined to block the offer of a Membership Action Plan (MAP) to Georgia. Zbigniew Brezhinski's opinion to the contrary, it's hard to imagine that current events will soften Germany and France's opposition. If I were betting money, it would be on the proposition that others in NATO will join France and Germany in this opinion.
2. I think it a stretch to characterize Ukraine membership in NATO as impending. Far from it. How have the current events effected this prospect? See point 1 above. The fact that Russia can stir up ethnic tensions in Ukraine and Moldova as easily as it has in Georgia will not be lost on the NATO membership many of whose members have been quite leery of extending that membership up to Russia's borders more than has already be done.
And lastly, no. This does not remind me of the US-Soviet confrontation over Cuba in 1962. Though a child at the time, I have distinct memories of that episode. Obvious differences are these: The Soviets with gleeful Cuban participation had place nuclear-tipped, short range ballistic missiles (SRBM's) 90 miles from Florida. This was an unprecedented provocation that crossed so many historical red lines from the American point of view that I still shake my head in disbelief wondering about the quality of scholarship in Lomonosov Moscow State University's American studies program at the time, or given it's quality was good, if anyone in the Soviet government had bothered to consult them. Now if the US, independent of NATO, had placed batteries of SRBM's in various military bases in Georgia, I would concede your analogy, but we aren't even close to that in the current situation.
What we appear to have is a Georgian President and his government who, without consulting NATO and its members - an organization they say they want to joint, unilaterally incites a military provocation that NATO and its members would likely never have approved. I think it an understatement to suggest that the judgment displayed will not enhance Georgia's prospect for NATO membership: Again, Zbigniew Brezhinski's advice to the contrary.
It is interesting to note that in a televised interview this morning in Beijing, President Bush when asked what he had to PM Putin responded by saying that he had expressed is grave concern with the disproportionate response by Russian forces outside of Ossetia. This was not an off-the-cuff statement. He was in his diplomatic-speak mode and so it was very carefully stated. Read it carefully and you'll realize that we are not close to a real US-Russian confrontation. You'll also realize that the Georgian President has badly misplayed his hand.
I have a presentiment, what i would translate your post in two next days :)
But at first i must note one remark about your and some west media synchronous change of attitude toward this war - from Russian agression to Saakashvili failure.
Soon we see the final.
>And lastly, no. This does not remind me of the US-Soviet confrontation over Cuba in 1962. Though a child at the time, I have distinct memories of that episode. Obvious differences are these: The Soviets with gleeful Cuban participation had place nuclear-tipped, short range ballistic missiles (SRBM's) 90 miles from Florida. This was an unprecedented provocation that crossed so many historical red lines from the American point of view
---------------------------
try to read this
http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.gazeta.ru%2Fnews%2Flenta%2F2008%2F08%2F25%2Fn_1262383.shtml&sl=ru&tl=en
or translate
http://www.gazeta.ru/news/lenta/2008/08/25/n_1262383.shtml
welcome, блять!
Abkhazia Facts:
Year Total Georgians Abkhaz Russians Armenians
1989 525,061 239,872 93,267 74,913 76,541
After "peacekeeping":
2003 215,972 45,53 94,606 23,420 44,870
S.Osetia
1989 99,000 28,700 65,200 About
2000
LOL What "guerillas" could start there ? Perhaps if starting from 2-3 yesrs old. You can fit all population with babies to 1 stadium.
Where are you from?
Can you show statistics of YOUR country?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/template/2.0-0/element/pictureGalleryPopup.jsp?id=4496632&&offset=1&§ionName=News&randnum=1218400287390
Read The Times if you don't believe us!!!
I'm sorry moderators for unformat lexicone.
It test message. Moderators filter messages and STOP truth!!!
Stop wasting precious space on the internet with silly messages, like these tests.
We don't filter messages, but delete comments with expletives.
Do you have any thoughtful opinion or suggestion to share?
Most adecvation of west news pappers. Read The Times!!!
OK guys in second post I'm sorry for my expletives or not ???
You can postn't this mes, just answer.
I wonder what's the purpose of this so-called discussion? Atlantic can hardly find additional content here, or perhaps it's indeed striving for an Olympic record? In that case, size definitely matters. In other words, the more cheap emotional talk the better.
Well go ahead then. Citius, altius, fortius!
:-)
pro-moscow occupation regime fights with belorussian youth that protests against russian agression.
http://www.charter97.org/en/news/2008/8/11/8914/
2 journalists killed in S.Osetia.
http://www.fromthefrontline.co.uk/blogs/index.php?blog=5&title=journalists_killed_in_south_ossetia&more=1&c=1&tb=1&pb=1
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