German NSC Sparks ControversyPosted by Editors in German Politics on Tuesday, May 13. 2008 This is a guest blog post by our long-time reader and commenter Pat Patterson: The blog Coming Anarchy has a balanced piece concerning the recent proposal by Chancellor Merkel and the CDU to create a German National Security Council that argues, "It is for these reasons that a seemingly innocuous and in fact logical step like creating a national security council has again sparked debate among citizens and politicians alike." And that, "Over the past few years though with the changes in both the domestic and international security situation, debate has been ongoing about whether Germany needs a National Security Council based more on the American model for example." Something similar was argued by the SPD in 1998 but very little in the way of change was made to the Bundessicherheitsrat (Federal Security Council) other than advising on the domestic state of affairs of the countries that were purchasing arms from Germany. But the current proposal goes much farther and states:
But the immediate opposition came from the SPD's Frank Walter-Steinmeier, the German Foreign Minister, mainly because the new proposal was similar to the US's National Security Council and thus, "This cannot be the model for us." (Deutsche Welle) A longer description of the proposal and the introduction of the idea that this new body would also be not only carrying out the instructions of the Chancellory but advising on the ".national interests" of Germany. The International Herald Tribune also mentions that the creation of this body would essentially bypass the Foreign Ministry which obviously would weaken the SPD presence in the government. As well as a quote from Karl-Heinz Kamp of the NATO college,
Georgia Conflict: Should NATO Marry the Small Kid on the Playground?Posted by Kyle Atwell in European Issues, Transatlantic Relations, US Foreign Policy on Saturday, May 10. 2008
Tiny Georgia has become the front line in West-Russia tensions for the past month. It began at the NATO Bucharest Summit in early April, when NATO members rebuked immediate progress toward full NATO membership for Georgia, due largely to protests from Russia – while nonetheless promising future membership.
In the month since Bucharest, Russia-Georgia relations have spiraled quickly. Multiple Georgian unmanned aircraft are claimed to have been shot down over the breakaway region of Abkhazia, though disinformation (i.e. – blatant lies) coming from Russia, Georgia, Abkhazia, or all three, have blurred the facts. Russia has also deepened ties with Georgia’s separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and increased its number of “peace-keepers” there despite protests from the EU and NATO. At the same time, Russia is accusing Georgia of preparing an invasion into Abkhazia, and Georgia has pulled out of an air-defense treaty with Russia. While both Russia and Georgia are contributing to escalating tensions, Russia undoubtedly initiated the latest downturn as a response to Georgia's bid for NATO membership. Continue reading "Georgia Conflict: Should NATO Marry the Small Kid on the Playground?" NATO Burden SharingPosted by Nanne Zwagerman in on Saturday, May 10. 2008
In an op-ed written for the Strategic Studies Institute, LTC Raymond A. Millen analyses the historical and recent development of commitments to common defense in NATO (thanks to Pamela for the submission):
Few recall the contentious deliberations at the beginning of the Cold War between the United States and its European allies regarding military contributions to the Alliance. The Truman administration expected the European powers to reconstitute their armies once they had recovered economically. But, having little faith in the American security guarantee, European statesmen refused to raise sufficient forces for defense without a tangible commitment from the United States. With no movement on the matter, the United States relented, deploying several divisions to NATO in 1949. Yet, the European reciprocal pledge did not materialize.A quick review of historic defense expenditure shows that the picture Millen gives of free-riding Europeans was at least delayed. The UK and France spent a larger percentage of their GDP on defense in 1950 than the USA, and their share of defense expenditure only really started to decline between 1960 and 1970. Continue reading "NATO Burden Sharing" Europe Lacks a Risk CulturePosted by Joerg Wolf in International Economics on Friday, May 9. 2008
Sounds familar. See "Germany's Innovation Dilemma" on Atlantic Community. Has Sarkozy Met US Expectations?Posted by Joerg Wolf in Transatlantic Relations on Wednesday, May 7. 2008 When Nicolas Sarkozy was elected president one year ago today, the US media was full of praise for him and expected a big improvement in transatlantic relations. Sarkozy's pro-American rhetoric was very much appreciated, because it was a big contrast to Gerhard Schroeder's US critical election campaigns. With Schroeder replaced by Angela Merkel and Chirac now replaced by Sarkozy, many Americans were looking forward to a new era in transatlantic relations led by a younger generation of pro-American leaders in Europe. I did not buy all this hype, but have been very critical of Sarkozy (and to a lesser extent of Merkel) and concluded in November that we are witnessing Better Transatlantic Relations in Style, but not in Substance. Kyle has been frustrated by Sarkozy as well: Sarkozy Makes Premature, Unnecessary, Familiar Statement on Kosovo. In the last few months, however, President Sarkozy announced some policy changes that indicate more support for US interests, so perhaps I should reconsider my position on Sarko. Gaelle Fisher has written a very balanced analysis on the question "Has Sarkozy truly improved the state of transatlantic relations and earned his reputation as the most pro-American president France has ever had?" She presents three arguments in favor and three against in a pro & con feature on Atlantic Community: Sarkozy l' Américain? Here is a snippet:
Or is that Trojan horse? On Sarko's first anniversary in power, the French are very critical of his domestic policies (and his style), but I wonder what Americans think of his foreign policy. Has he met your expectations? Has he repaired the damage in transatlantic relations as expected by many in the US media? Whether you are an American or not, I appreciate your comments here and on Atlantic Community. German Banks and the US Mortgage CrisisPosted by Joerg Wolf in German Politics, International Economics on Tuesday, May 6. 2008 Deutsche Bank got a lot of negative press coverage in the United States. David Vickrey, who used to work on corporate finance transactions at Deutsche Bank Securiites and Barclays Capital, has written extensively in his blog Dialog International about the involvement of German banks in the US mortgage crisis. Here are a couple of posts in chronological order (latest on top): Karma and Bad Times for Deutsche Bank in America (April 27, 2008) Greed and Fear: US Subprime Crisis Takes Its Toll in Germany (April 9, 2008) The Subprime Crisis Leads to Mad Mergers in Germany (April 1, 2008) German Government: Please Sue Deutsche Bank (March 10, 2008) Deutsche Bank: America's Foreclosure King (January 24, 2008) Pentagon on Afghanistan: We Got to Go it Alone, Basically...Posted by Joerg Wolf in Transatlantic Relations, US Foreign Policy on Saturday, May 3. 2008 Due to a shortfall in contributions from NATO allies, the Pentagon is considering sending as many as 7,000 more US troops to Afghanistan, write Steven Lee Myers and Thom Shanker in the New York Times:
Related posts on Atlantic Review: • Bumper Stickers Slogans: What is the Purpose of NATO? • Afghanistan: Merkel Has "No Time" for Burden Sharing Proposals • Rupert Murdoch: Alliance Based on Shared Values, not Geography What Schadenfreude?Posted by Joerg Wolf in German Politics, International Economics on Friday, May 2. 2008 German Bundesbankers expect a gradual slowdown of the economy as a result of weaker global growth, higher oil prices and a stronger euro. They are not concerned about any direct fallout from the US mortgage crisis, writes Ralph Atkins in the Financial Times. The article's headline is "Schadenfreude stirs in resilient Germany," but Atkins only claims once that "across Germany, a sense of schadenfreude has even started to emerge." His only indication is that "Peer Steinbrück, finance minister, has long maintained that a run on a bank, as seen with Northern Rock in the UK, would not happen in Germany." Well, many Germans are scared about their jobs and worry about poverty in their later retirement. Many are so concerned about the financial markets that they do not invest their savings, but keep them on a bank account with low interest, which is bad for retirement plans and for the economy. That's why the finance minister tries to reassure the public. That's not Schadenfreude. Perhaps the folks at the Financial Times felt compelled to use a German word in their headline. Next time write "Blitzkrieg" or "Kindergarten" or address people as "Herr Steinbrück" rather than "Mr. Steinbrück" (a weird habit of some). Otherwise the article is good and describes what has been going on:
Atkins ends with an FT typical conclusion: I believe "steadier but lower" is the very much preferred model in economic (and political) matters over here. Global Oil Panic: The United States of AmericaPosted by Nanne Zwagerman in US Domestic and Cultural Issues on Wednesday, April 30. 2008
Oil prices are on the up and up, setting new records at the pump. Each time this happens, a spate of panicky reactions in national politics, all isolated from each other, burst up. First, a brief look at the state of the debate in the USA:
In the USA, McCain has proposed reacting to the higher oil prices by temporarily cutting taxes. This is in keeping with the Republican solution to everything -- cut taxes. Hillary Clinton has jumped on the McCain tax cutting train, hoping to draw more contrasts with Barack Obama. Meanwhile, Obama finds himself in the same camp as George W. Bush in opposing a symbolic tax holiday. A few paragraphs from the New York Times, via Drezner:
Continue reading "Global Oil Panic: The United States of America" Sarkozy's Tradeoff: France Considering NATO ReintegrationPosted by Kyle Atwell in European Issues, Transatlantic Relations, US Foreign Policy on Monday, April 28. 2008
France has signaled over the past few months that it may pursue reintegration into the NATO command structure, which President Charles de Gaulle fitfully left in 1966. A sympathetic member of the French National Assembly published an article in Newsweek arguing this move is, “no less than a revolution for NATO and transatlantic relations.” The article explains Sarkozy's proposed tradeoff:
By showing that France is America's trusted friend again, Sarkozy hopes to gain influence on American policy, and, in particular, on lifting the longtime U.S. veto on European defense.This is an interesting proposal: France will rejoin NATO if it can pursue its own parallel EU military structures. Many in the US defense establishment have long been concerned that a more autonomous European Security and Defense Policy is intended to act as a counterweight to the United States, or that it will duplicate/detract from NATO programs and assets. As Soeren Kern of the Madrid-based Grupo de Estudios Estratégicos states in World Politics Review: … most of Sarkozy's proposals seem to be geared toward creating a rival European defense structure that over time will duplicate but not double NATO resources… Indeed, some of the more U.S.-leaning European states suspect that France's renewed interest in rejoining NATO is in fact a Trojan horse designed, ultimately, to destroy the Atlantic Alliance from within.At the same time, the United States has been pushing Europe to build stronger military capabilities since the Alliance was born, based on a plea for "burden sharing." One common sentiment, although often expressed with reserve, is that “it doesn’t matter where the forces come from, so long as they come.” By rejoining NATO, Sarkozy may be able to strike a balance of confidences between what on the face appears to be double-think: convincing America of France’s commitment to Atlanticism, while concurrently pursuing greater European military autonomy. However, Soeren Kern points out that even if Sarkozy’s intentions are Atlanticist in nature, they will probably not outlast his term of presidency: For most of the French ruling elite (the anti-American Left and the nationalist Right), the United States is considered to be the main problem in international affairs because of its reluctance to share its power. The only solution, in their view, is a French-led EU superstate that can counterbalance America on the global stage. And a unified EU foreign and defense policy that is completely independent of NATO (i.e., the United States) is essential to achieve equal status. Until then, anti-Americanism will continue to be the preferred means to accelerate the process of loosening the transatlantic link.Related posts on Atlantic Review: • Europeans View China as the Biggest Threat to Global Security • Europe is a Threat to the United States
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US Allies: Are Asians so Different from Europeans?Posted by Joerg Wolf in Transatlantic Relations, US Foreign Policy on Monday, April 28. 2008 NYT Columnist Roger Cohen wrote Europe Votes Democrat, but Asia Tends Republican and Michael J. Green, who served on the National Security Council staff from 2001 to 2005, claims that the Iraq war has been good for US interests in South East Asia. He writes in The Washington Quarterly: If anything, most major powers in Asia have used the war on terrorism and the conflict in Iraq to align more closely with the United States in order to balance rivals within the region or to advance their global standing. Greg Sheridan agrees with this analysis and adds in The Australian (HT: Joe Noory):
Other conservatives, however, worry about the US standing in in East Asia: Michael Austin from the American Enterprise Institute opines that appeasement politics weaken US credibility in Asia: "Some of America's most important bilateral alliances are at risk of coming unmoored." European Biofuel Producers Attack US SubsidiesPosted by Joerg Wolf in International Economics on Sunday, April 27. 2008 From the Wall Street Journal's Environmental Capital blog:
The Guardian is a bit more optimistic regarding the European Biodiesel Board's case.
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[url=http://commons.wikimedia. org/wiki/Image:British_troops_ retreat_dunkerque.png]Bri [...]
franchie about Georgia Conflict: Should NATO Marry the Small Kid on the Playground?
turlututu a clanic manifest there
Pat Patterson about Georgia Conflict: Should NATO Marry the Small Kid on the Playground?
Of the 330,000 troops that made it safely off the beach at Dunkirk were over 139,000 [...]
franchie about Georgia Conflict: Should NATO Marry the Small Kid on the Playground?
Dunkirk, wasn't there that the Brits ran (oops, swam away) away like rabbits in their [...]
Don S about Europe Lacks a Risk Culture
This was a perceptive comment. In the US there was a financier and a bank which are [...]
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A few months after the above post was relevant, the situation looks gloomier and the [...]
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Pat Patterson about Georgia Conflict: Should NATO Marry the Small Kid on the Playground?
Dunkirk?